I have drawn whit dotted lines from the Volume histograms far left of chart showing key support levels.
If #1 around 176.77 holds (these are zones rather than precise, pinpoint prices), then expect a bounce to the gap above 183.50. IF it slices through, there is little below before 169.05, so if playing the long side, WATCH OUT or have deep, patient pockets!
I suspect 177 will hold, then a probe to the gap, then either new highs or a Daily swing down to at least that 170 level.
If you change this to a weekly chart, you can see that volume support is WAY lower down back to 2011 levels. Time will tell.
Comments
AshHowes
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Friday Jan 319.30 Open: Critical support AGAIN the focus. If it holds, look out above; if it doesn't look out below. The point is - as from original post one week ago - this is a key level as indicated by the Volume package.
AshHowes
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Jan 30 12:53 update: overhead short term resistance broken and market continuing up. Should be a counter-trend move soon correcting 38-50% of the daily price, then a thrust into the close to test, and probably exceed the daily high about to be made.
At this point, although the basing action was of short duration without excessive volume - albeit nice spike in Daily VIX - probably the low is in and we are finally heading back up to the infamous 182 gap, the original thesis of this comment.
Trading ideas: personally have been lightly buying into selloffs the past few days, but as market approaches 183 - if it does, will start taking 5 min sell signals. If market then breaks to new higher highs on volume, then the bull is back probably through May. If it fails, then probably down to 150-160 levels.
AshHowes
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Wed 29 14:15 - okay, there is Battle Royale now at the 177-6 level the result of which should determine where we go from here.
AshHowes
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Wed 29 10:10 Market just probed the 177 level on the open and has bounced. If this holds, then look for long entry signals for rally to the 180-83 level. And again: if it breaks, should go down to around 170.
AshHowes
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TUesday Jan 28 15:20 - a new POC has formed around 179 which to my view means the chances for a bounce back up to the 183 gap level is now more likely. I still would not be surprised, though, if there isn't first a retest-fail of the 177 low. If there is such a test, then any price action above recent highs is a very strong buy to the 183 level marked on the chart from the initial post.
AshHowes
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14:18 bounce from 177.12, bang on expected support.
AshHowes
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12:08 EST: now approaching the identified support level around 175-7. There is minor technical support at prior swing and cluster low price of 174.76, but if you look to left at that level you can see not very much volume in the histogram, so it might not provide much support in which case market will go fast down to next level around 169.06 (next white dotted line).