Compare this chart to the monthly chart that indicates a top coming in the month of April and we have a confluence in place. The will be the fine tune for the entry.
We have been hitting a new high for the move every 5-weeks now since the summer, so we are overdue for a more meaningful correction. The definition of a trend is simply that the market is making a new high every 5-bars. Once no new high is made, then check the level of the most frequent price since the high, and if the market is below that level then the market is in a downtrend.
For now: The S&P500 is set to make an important top in the first two weeks of April.
Tim 1:36PM EST March 26, 2014 SPY 185.94 last.
There are still pockets of value, especially in emerging markets. But once corporations abroad, and entire industries for the matter, are overvalued you can expect the market to at least correct itself marginally. I'm unsure of what to short specifically; the nasdaq has been getting hit the hardest (and that makes sense).