timwest

SPDR SP500 SPY WEEKLY TIME AT PRICE ANALYSIS - TOP IN APRIL

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
1380 22 7
Another few weeks and we run out of time for the SPY             to advance from its 9-week and 7-week accumulations.

Compare this chart to the monthly chart that indicates a top coming in the month of April and we have a confluence in place. The daily analysis will be the fine tune for the entry.

We have been hitting a new high for the move every 5-weeks now since the summer, so we are overdue for a more meaningful correction. The definition of a trend is simply that the market is making a new high every 5-bars. Once no new high is made, then check the level of the most frequent price since the high, and if the market is below that level then the market is in a downtrend.

For now: The S&P500             is set to make an important top in the first two weeks of April.

Tim 1:36PM EST March 26, 2014 SPY             185.94 last.
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bergaler PRO
2 years ago
How can you have two different time counts occurring at different prices at the same time? I will admit your charting is on another level from mine. I don't post on here often but save >95% my work privately so what's on here isn't indicative of the extent of my knowledge. Thanks.
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timwest PRO bergaler
2 years ago
Thanks for the question bergaler, I have the 9-week starting on 1-week (2/17, Feb 17) and the 7-week start the week after (2/24, Feb 24). You are right that it is different, and it doesn't extend the forecast up in price or time, so I could just have left off the 7-week advance. I appreciate your question. It is a great leap of faith that I post my original analysis here for the benefit of everyone. If we all can help each other find very low risk trades that, in turn, help us all make more money, then that is what I am trying to do and what I want to be part of. If you post your analysis and it helps you define your idea and crystallize your entry and exit even further, then our community here benefits and you benefit too. Again, thanks for the question.
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2use
2 years ago
Interesting chart? Second one predicting a top and turn in april. What theory describes such counting of distance in days/weeks from highs?
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timwest PRO 2use
2 years ago
Thanks 2use? Is it interesting or not? I can't tell from your comment. The theory is mine - it needs a name though. It's my own method that I am sharing here at Tradingview that is rooted in my experience and from me plotting charts by hand for 20+ years. TradingView is a great tool for sharing this theory.
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2use timwest
2 years ago
It is interesting as i would like to understand the thinking and number process, test it on other stocks and see how well it holds on. I personally believe in patterns, numbers and this does seem like something new. Although at a first glance could not get the pattern of how you decide a period of 20 days, 19, 17 and why you take 5 days from a break in one case over the other. But hopefully you will help with this :)
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timwest PRO 2use
2 years ago
Thanks 2use. The other charts I have published label the process pretty clearly. The #'s are the count of how many bars touch the horizontal line through the price action. Pick the maximum # and that is the controlling time frame.
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2use timwest
2 years ago
Thanx! Out of curiousity, how long have you been applying this technique?
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timwest PRO 2use
2 years ago
Since 1988.
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2use
2 years ago
What about 2011-08-29? There was a high and no high after 5 weeks, though on 6 th it did not go lower and went up.
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timwest PRO 2use
2 years ago
The market was still in a downtrend there at 8/29/2011. It had made a new low for the move just 3 weeks before. I could put a red arrow there but it is the same trend as the one from the top on May 2 (5/02/11)
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timwest PRO 2use
2 years ago
Also, the market needs to be below the mode from the high set 5 weeks before and it wasn't. That's a key point to look for.
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Tech time
2 years ago
"Sell in May and go away" but sometimes it can be a little pre-mature, closer to April. There's no question we are going to see intense volatility in the coming months. I can say with 75% confidence that we will not slowly grind higher like we did in 2013.

There are still pockets of value, especially in emerging markets. But once corporations abroad, and entire industries for the matter, are overvalued you can expect the market to at least correct itself marginally. I'm unsure of what to short specifically; the nasdaq has been getting hit the hardest (and that makes sense).
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2use Tech time
2 years ago
Nasdaq got hit hardest because of the first punch from IBB and biotechs, 2 days in a row caused it to go lower than other indices. The gov basically kicked this off.
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2use
2 years ago
BTW - for some reason your charts do not get updated with new bars. Why?
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timwest PRO 2use
2 years ago
Perhaps because it is on the same bar so far since it is a weekly bar.
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bergaler PRO timwest
2 years ago
haha..
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2use timwest
2 years ago
Sorry, i know this :) it actually seems there was a period when it was not working (plus i still see on some charts that are heavily populated with elements). Currently there is an issue not loading data for indicators. But i found a fix for that.
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timwest PRO 2use
2 years ago
Are you all set now? Did you have more questions?
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2use timwest
2 years ago
Double posted a chart - any way i can delete one of those? Could not find the option.
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timwest PRO
2 years ago
The top is looking pretty good after the action on Friday, 4/4/2014
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timwest PRO
2 years ago
THE TOP IS LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH THE ACTION NOW AS OF 2:35PM ON FRIDAY, APRIL 11, 2014
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2use timwest
2 years ago
Have saved this chart and indeed, for now all seems to be the case
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