Another few weeks and we run out of time for the SPY to advance from its 9-week and 7-week accumulations.
Compare this chart to the monthly chart that indicates a top coming in the month of April and we have a confluence in place. The daily analysis will be the fine tune for the entry.
We have been hitting a new high for the move every 5-weeks now since the summer, so we are overdue for a more meaningful correction. The definition of a trend is simply that the market is making a new high every 5-bars. Once no new high is made, then check the level of the most frequent price since the high, and if the market is below that level then the market is in a downtrend.
For now: The S&P500 is set to make an important top in the first two weeks of April.
Tim 1:36PM EST March 26, 2014 SPY 185.94 last.
Comments
timwest
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THE TOP IS LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH THE ACTION NOW AS OF 2:35PM ON FRIDAY, APRIL 11, 2014
A-shot
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Have saved this chart and indeed, for now all seems to be the case
timwest
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The top is looking pretty good after the action on Friday, 4/4/2014
A-shot
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BTW - for some reason your charts do not get updated with new bars. Why?
timwest
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Perhaps because it is on the same bar so far since it is a weekly bar.
bergaler
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haha..
A-shot
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Sorry, i know this :) it actually seems there was a period when it was not working (plus i still see on some charts that are heavily populated with elements). Currently there is an issue not loading data for indicators. But i found a fix for that.
timwest
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Are you all set now? Did you have more questions?
A-shot
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Double posted a chart - any way i can delete one of those? Could not find the option.
Tech_time
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"Sell in May and go away" but sometimes it can be a little pre-mature, closer to April. There's no question we are going to see intense volatility in the coming months. I can say with 75% confidence that we will not slowly grind higher like we did in 2013.
There are still pockets of value, especially in emerging markets. But once corporations abroad, and entire industries for the matter, are overvalued you can expect the market to at least correct itself marginally. I'm unsure of what to short specifically; the nasdaq has been getting hit the hardest (and that makes sense).