Risk On or Risk Off, Bonds or Stocks ?

In the beginning of 2014 we saw a big shift with investing. Investors bought both US stocks and US bonds. This trend lasted up until September of 2014, about same time oil             started to break down and stocks became very volatile. Also during September we saw a big shift to US bonds. As the market gyrated with oil             volatility - OVX             - US bonds grew even stronger.

However, today I saw what looks like a turnaround in this trend since September. As oil             went up, stocks went up and bonds went down by a significant amount. This is important event, because it signifies were in an early stage of another risk on move, meaning investors will once again take more risk in the equity markets rather than bonds. So I will be looking for a top in TLT             . Stocks may still get a bit more gyration with oil             , but we should be looking to buy dips.

Note: You can also read up on my related Stage 4 to Stage 5 of Intermarket Analysis, which previews a reasoning for when to take bets in Financials. In this case your best bets might be with European Banks.
No negotiations on Greece at EU summit, officials to meet Friday

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - European Union leaders did not enter into any negotiations on Greece's economic problems on Thursday, leaving the talks to officials who are to meet on Friday, the chairman of the EU summit Donald Tusk said.

"The leaders did not enter into a negotiation on Greece," Tusk told a news conference after Thursday's Brussels summit.

Greece, where the anti-austerity government of Alexis Tsipras took power in January, needs money to keep it afloat while it negotiates with the euro zone on what should replace a 240-billion euro (178 billion pounds) bailout scheme that expires in two weeks.

Euro zone countries want Athens to ask for a technical extension of the current programme to buy itself time until something else is agreed. Tsipras rejects that, arguing he won elections on promises of ending the bailout.

An emergency meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Wednesday failed to produce a statement or even an agreement for euro zone and Greek negotiators to continue talks before a last-chance meeting of euro zone ministers on Feb. 16.

But the president of the Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, agreed with Tsipras on Thursday to continue talks between Greek and euro zone officials to find common ground.

"I am optimistic that we will have an outcome on the technical process," Dijsselbloem told reporters.

But he added: "I am very cautious on the political side. It is going to be very difficult. It is going to take time. Don't get your hopes up yet."

After Feb. 16, EU officials fear that even if Greece were to ask for an extension of the current programme, there would not be enough time for some euro zone parliaments to approve it.

Once the bailout expires on Feb. 28, Athens will lose access to euro zone or market financing and its banks will lose access to European Central Bank refinancing or the 11 billion euro EU safety cushion for their possible emergency recapitalisation.

Greece would also lose eligibility to negotiate more time to repay the loans it got from the euro zone.
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i am not suggesting anything here..
but the flattened 50ema caught my eyes
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About all I could find was a negative correlation with European Stock ETF VGK. Looks like if US Dollar would weaken with US Yields going higher, that would strengthen European stocks. This is contrary to what most believe, including leading economist.
+5 Reply
jangseohee QuantitativeExhaustion
for DXY/TNX, i wont rule out another "push" higher to finish thing off nicely
+3 Reply
TradeEmpowered jangseohee
Do you have any other correlations and channels that we should worry about?
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jangseohee TradeEmpowered
for co-relation, i need to shop, JR might have more
soley for channel i have a few more
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That is a good find. When compared to SPY you can see that after every move down in TIP/TLT ratio we saw markets follow. This time is different. US has not experienced any sort of deflation, while there is suggested slow growth in Asia and obvious no growth in Europe (exception a few countries).
+5 Reply

When compared to oil we can see the trend really picked up this time around.
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