On fundamental side, US economy has been waking up. The expectation of quarterly GDP growth rate has been increasing since 2014. Unemployment situation is getting better. Fed exited based on the recent healthy growth of economy. The macro data of the last quarter is doing well. The expectation of GDP growth rate increased to 5 year high and the real number exceeded the expectation. The sector rotation right now shows the "safe harbor sectors" such as utilities are hot. Usually when these sectors becoming hot, the market is going towards it's potential peak. But right now it's still not there yet, at least SPY hasn't yet given us any signal that it's reaching peak. We could still see some continuation of up trend. Fed is expected to announce raising interest rate in May 2015, which is detrimental to the market. So the timing of my measure move points to May 2015 as the end of the coming round of rally. The expectation is about to digest by the market then.
Today SPY is approaching the upper trend line of this potential wedge. This afternoon EST, ECB announced they refuse to allow greek bonds to be used as collateral in monetary operations. The annoucement puts Greece in even more dangerous position of bank crisis. If they can not use their bonds as collateral, what else can they use? Meanwhile, SPY flushed in the last two 15min bars. Overall, today's bar is a shooting star in the high, which lines up with the ECB annoucement. It's not a good sign. And stochastic indicator is in oversold area again. Let's see if it make a small pullback in the following days.
I will keep on posting my follow-up thoughts on my trading idea as the market fluctuates. Hope these thoughts are constructive to the viewers.