SPY fork pattern analysis

I published another fork pattern idea earlier today (see related idea) on the daily chart pointing out how the fork patterns predicted the lasts 2 major market falls and the starting of the recovery after the previous fall and likely the point where recovery starts for the current fall (which was yesterday). I went to 1H chart to get a feel for where the market is going. You can see (for the 1st fork on th chart) the market fell when it reached the top fork line and that yesterday SPY went below the bottom fork line (for the second fork). The 3rd fork, meant to predict the market direction, is a bit premature: it's only based on 2 days of price action and it's rather narrow. Price action over the next days will likely go beyond the fork and will expand it. However, the fork may still give a valuable idea about the upcoming trend. Thus I predict that the SPY will reach the last red circle on the graph (when the last fork will reach the top line of the 2nd fork). That is around 342-343 on Oct. 13. As I said, this is preliminary, as the price action over the next days will likely expand the fork and thus, that point of intersection may come sooner. Whenever it comes, I find it rather likely that SPY will have a little, temporary fall at that point. That may happen instead when the last fork reaches the green line of the 2nd fork (where the 1st red circle is, around 339 price level on Oct. 7) but I find that less likely.

Conclusion: go long.

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Related idea:

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I have a strategy for SPY backtested since 2010 with 1,495% profit, 72.52% profitable trades, 4.843 profit factor and 12.96% max. drawdown. These are all very good stats. It currently has a buy long signal.

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There is a good chance that the price (and the market as well) will fall on Monday before resuming the upward move. Here's why I think so. I wrote an algo/strategy that gives excellent results for TECL (a leveraged 3x bull tech sector ETF). The version optimized for TECL gives 677,000% profit since 2012 in backtesting. The version optimized for SPY (and used unchanged on TECL) has about 50,000% profit (www.tradingview.com/...tegy-Bullish-Signal/) and this year over 90% profitable trades. Because it's so accurate it's a good gauge for the market. On Thursday at close the algo gave a bearish signal. Rather often fall follows the bearish signal one day late. For example, in forward testing the algo predicted the current fall on Sep. 1 but Sep. 2 the market went up and only on Sep. 3 the big fall happened (you can see that in the link here). Similarly, one version of the algo also gives a bearish signal on Sep. 21 and Sep. 22 the market was up and only on Sep. 23 it fell (and there is a long signal for close of Sep. 23). So the bearish signal from Thursday may very well mean that Friday the market would go up (which it did indeed; the algo also gave an intra-day bullish signal in the morning which disappeared later after the price went up) and would fall on Monday. However I expect this fall to be temporary (one day only) and I don't expect the price to fall lower than the lower pitchfork line and I expect a bullish signal from the algo at close on Monday.

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As I said in the initial post, "The 3rd fork, meant to predict the market direction, is a bit premature: it's only based on 2 days of price action and it's rather narrow. Price action over the next days will likely go beyond the fork and will expand it." That happened indeed so here an updated setup. Based on the comments above, I expect SPY to fall to a low of about 324 and then to recover to about 331.