It’s time to talk about Trump, and why I think he’s done a good job at being a president so far.
First of all, he is not your usual politician. This is good on two fronts simultaneously.
Firstly, he does not have to return favors and kiss asses to the circle of insiders, which one inevitably amasses on one’s way up to the presidency, when doing it a conventional career politician way. And also, because he self funded his campaign, so there was no need to cater to the special interests.
Secondly, he does not really care about reelection. And here is why. The guy is 73 years old, he is famous all over the world and he is rich beyond one’s imagining. He had everything life has to offer, so the presidency bid might have started as an epic «why not» thing. The presidency is the icing on the cake for him. He went for it because he could, because he wanted, and also I suspect, being a high profile businessman, he saw the rot that was eating away on the heart of America and I believe he wanted to have something done about it.
And he got elected. The icing on the cake was made. So he won already. Even if he goes tomorrow, he’s already won. He will be remembered. That allows him not to worry much about momentary moods of the crowd, press coverage and the rest. So we’ve got a president who can put forward a proper grand vision, whereas the latest presidents were mainly doing minor patchwork instead, when not wrecking the economy of bombing deserts. He might pretend he cares, but that is part of the game if being Trump and his presidency. And on the reelection note: yes, I believe he will be reelected no matter who gets to stand against him.
On the solid results:
No new wars had been started.No money wasted, no deserts bombed. He attempted to withdraw from Syria and Afghanistan, which is great, given that the US should not have been there in the first place. Pressured enemies diplomatically and finically(Iran, North Korea, Russia, Venezuela) not a single shot fired. A massive win!
The economy is great. It is true, Trump inherited a somewhat okay economy, yet, the usual economic cycle was supposed to have ended by the time he became president. We were sliding into the recession. Just look at the SNP500. We were an inch away from the abyss. Yet, with tax cuts, regulations slashed and the general spirits reinvigorated, the market almost doubled in 3 years that Trump is a president. And you can’t take that away from him.
Basically, what else do you want? That is already 6 out of 10. With his predecessors scoring 3/10 at best.
Good on the domestic policy. Vocally protects 1st and 2nd amendments. Got a fellow conservative into the Supreme Court.
The guy has massively shifted the whole political and cultural narratives and the way we see and do things already.
He had the balls to shake the rotten house of NATO and make Europe pay its fair share.
He had the balls to start a trade feud with China, taking then on the issues that were supposed to be settled 20 years ago. Intellectual property theft, unfair treatment of the western companies, closing its market randomly and manipulating currency. Trump singlehandedly reshaped how the world trades with America. USMCA is coming, Europe will give way. China is holding, but, arguably to its detriment. The need for reining China in was acutely felt long before Trump. Yet, everyone was kicking the can down the road, thinking, not this year. Not in my presidency. The longer you hold the dog, the angrier it gets. He was the only one who let the dog go, and faced the consequences.
His unique style of managing relations with the Fed had somewhat taken me aback, at first, yet we need to be wary of the power that we’ve endowed into this closed, unelected, and immensely powerful institution. So agin, challenging status quo, not bad.
So here is my brief take on Trump. And, just to make it clear, I am not a Trump fan. I am an independent thinker and when analyzing Trump, I am not comparing him to some abstract theoretical ideal we might have had, but to the real alternatives, the ones we’ve got and the one's we had before.
Nice summary but your conclusion is simply incorrect.
1) Trump was inaugurated on Jan 20th, 2017, not in February 2016 as your chart indicates. This was nearly 1 year after the 'edge of the abyss'.
2) Correlation does not equal causation. The bull market began in March 2009, just 2 months after Obama was inaugurated as president. Trump and Obama couldn't be any more different yet how could they both produce record equity gains?
Trump has done his part to reshape the political and economic landscape within the USA but attributing the last 4 years of market gains to his influence seems a bit farfetched.
CassidyWaterhouS
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@sparket, thanks for the measured and thoughtful comment. Well, Obama's bull market was due to a low base, and the economy was expected to start recovering already. With Trump though, we are 3 years further into the growth cycle than usual, which is extraordinary. And yes, presidents have limited power to influence fundamental economic processes, yet they might be a tale wind or a head wind. And the country knows which one Trump is.
"Basically, what else do you want? That is already 6 out of 10. With his predecessors scoring 3/10 at best."
How about sustainable growth? How about no requirement of 100's of billions of dollars to be injected by the FED in overnight REPO's to keep the system from crashing? How about debt not soaring higher than ever before since he's president?
Could everything seem well because it has been completely created with printed money?.. How about QE1 QE2 QE3 ..?
Do you know what Trump said about QE3??
"QE3 is going to further sink the dollar into oblivion. Creates artificial numbers for short term market gains." - twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/246691132837330944
"short term market gains" is the key.. It has been longer than short so far, but one day stocks will fall 40-50%, and then who do you congratulate for inflating the bubble?..
“Believe me: We’re in a bubble right now. And the only thing that looks good is the stock market — but if you raise interest rates even a little bit, that’s going to come crashing down...We are in a big, fat, ugly bubble. And we better be awfully careful.” - Trump 9/2016
jstephe25
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@sparket, YES! This is like the 10th time of seen someone post this exact thing
Nicklaus86
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You forgot he’s extremely racist, sexist and he certainly ain’t no environmentalist. So I think being a yank, of course you’d have such a biased view. Keep polluting the air and printing worthless money while the rest of the world wakes up to the reality we are living in.
CassidyWaterhouS
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@Nicklaus86,Well, thank you for the comment, first of all. Just to make it clear again, I am not his fan, yet he's done well, I think. I could not find any evidence of him being racist, and I would not be equating his lack of concern for climate change with not being an environmentalist.
Is there any policy or action of his, that you would criticize?
1) Trump was inaugurated on Jan 20th, 2017, not in February 2016 as your chart indicates. This was nearly 1 year after the 'edge of the abyss'.
2) Correlation does not equal causation. The bull market began in March 2009, just 2 months after Obama was inaugurated as president. Trump and Obama couldn't be any more different yet how could they both produce record equity gains?
Trump has done his part to reshape the political and economic landscape within the USA but attributing the last 4 years of market gains to his influence seems a bit farfetched.