My overall outlook on the market is still Bearish.
There are still so many signs the world economy is in for one hell of a recession.
The 10y2y is still in free fall ever since the leading indicator of a hedge fund collapsing began.
DXY is still showing support at 105 breakdown line.
The VIX continues to compress with higher lows and lower highs.
GFDEBTN
debt continues to climb at a break neck pace. The next Debt Ceiling crisis is not far away.
SKEW is pinned at 120 even though VIX is retiring to pre-russian invasion levels.
This loosely translates to funds not being hedged properly for a 2nd Leg Down.
The street is looking for fed hikes to peak at 75bp and ease into the fall.
What happens when the FED is forced to do 100bp because inflation will not sit in the corner.
Nobody puts baby in a corner.
Don’t even get me started about Jobs or the Housing / Wood markets.
I give this Short Squeeze fueled rally until the Aug 10th when the next round of CPI comes out.
I still expect SPY to test the 200D moving average and maybe a look at 420.69 just to trap every last bull.
Those bulls like Bill Hwang are skittish, but seeing the shenanigans pick up with HKD is a stark reminder of how this mess all got started in the first place.
Never Financial Advice, Always 1 card short of a full deck.
There are still so many signs the world economy is in for one hell of a recession.
The 10y2y is still in free fall ever since the leading indicator of a hedge fund collapsing began.
DXY is still showing support at 105 breakdown line.
The VIX continues to compress with higher lows and lower highs.
GFDEBTN
debt continues to climb at a break neck pace. The next Debt Ceiling crisis is not far away. 
SKEW is pinned at 120 even though VIX is retiring to pre-russian invasion levels.
This loosely translates to funds not being hedged properly for a 2nd Leg Down.
The street is looking for fed hikes to peak at 75bp and ease into the fall.
What happens when the FED is forced to do 100bp because inflation will not sit in the corner.
Nobody puts baby in a corner.
Don’t even get me started about Jobs or the Housing / Wood markets.
I give this Short Squeeze fueled rally until the Aug 10th when the next round of CPI comes out.
I still expect SPY to test the 200D moving average and maybe a look at 420.69 just to trap every last bull.
Those bulls like Bill Hwang are skittish, but seeing the shenanigans pick up with HKD is a stark reminder of how this mess all got started in the first place.
Never Financial Advice, Always 1 card short of a full deck.
