For fun, I decided to draw in -- scribble -- some rounding top and rounding bottom formations in the SPY over the last few market cycles. The reason why I give any credibility at all to the pattern formations is that it provides the psychological sentiment of the market -- that the bullish euphoria is coming to an end, that the bullish strength is weakening. I feel that the symmetry of the red parabolas provide the resistance and support areas for the price action.
If this price moves like the past, expect a few months of red to go down to around 175-180 before moving sideways to touch the end of the parabola. Afterwards, like the past (specifically 2000), expect massive collapses.
You are not alone. I had this idea since early or at least the middle of October 2015 and decided to post it last week before the Paris attack sadly happened. After publishing my idea I came by incidence via Twitter across a blog post from early November with the same idea:
But if the market actually rallies through this very bearish scenario that would be super-bullish. That would require a lot of new sudden and sustaining strength in the market though, which appears unlikely given that overall earnings in the US are falling each quarter this year and a Fed rate hike in the past always created a downtrend in the first 3 months after each rate hike.
ChartArt
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Usually a bull market ends when bulls are exhausted buying, that's why I still have the idea that a new yearly high can happen before the middle December meeting of the Fed. Which would be a safer longer-time-horizon short location to try than right now somewhere in indecision land.
davidstockmanscontracorner.com/mind-the-spx-arch-potential-for-a-25-plunge-ahead/
But if the market actually rallies through this very bearish scenario that would be super-bullish. That would require a lot of new sudden and sustaining strength in the market though, which appears unlikely given that overall earnings in the US are falling each quarter this year and a Fed rate hike in the past always created a downtrend in the first 3 months after each rate hike.