NaughtyPines
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EFFECT OF INTEREST RATE RISE ON MARKETS

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500
A good article:

"The average stock market correction following the first rate has occurred 21.2 months later." http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-16/analyzing-impact-fed-rate-hikes-markets-economy

"The number of times that Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates without a negative economic or market impact has been exactly ZERO." http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-16/analyzing-impact-fed-rate-hikes-markets-economy

"There is an ongoing belief that the current financial market trends will continue to head only higher. This is a dangerous concept that is only seen near peaks of cyclical bull market cycles. While the analysis above suggests that the current bull market could certainly last some time longer, it is important to remember that it is 'only like this, until it is like that.'" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-16/analyzing-impact-fed-rate-hikes-markets-economy (italics in original).
A couple of comments after the fact: First, the 21.2 month post-rate hike correction is an average. A correction may occur later or earlier. Secondly, a negative market impact from a rate hike has a high probability of occurring, but the depth of that correction in light of current market conditions is unclear. Third, the ZIRP the Fed has undertaken over the past several years is unprecedented both in terms of the interest rate maintained, as well its duration; that being said, it is anticipated that the Fed will move from basically 0% to "normalized" (whatever that is) conditions over a several year period of time in multiple 25 basis point hikes, possibly coming in irregularly spaced bits and spurts ... .

In other words, it will "only be like this, until it is like that."
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