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This_Guhy
Dec 5, 2019 11:47 PM

Official Call:The S&P Top is in 

SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUSTArca

Description

I hereby officially delare that a multi-year top for the S&P 500 is in. We are not going to close a candle body above 315 for years after this week. Next week might have us see a bearish engulfing, we might get some reckless bulls to give a reversal wick but really, its over. The top is in and the volume tells the tale.

Key points to remember about the main chart
  • Trendline that was support is now resistance
  • Two measures of Volume are showing (screaming, really) bearish signals
  • The OBV is showing bearish divergence
  • The OBV EMAS are predicting a fully bearish ordering
  • The Money Flow index, also commonly known as the Volume Weighted RSI for how you can use it, is showing bearish divergence on the fast (15 period) setting)
  • When the Money Flow Index Fast setting has bearish divergence and the price action performs bearishly the bearish cross of the MFI slow setting predicts a stronger sell off than normal cross without divergence.

Review the dip around September 2018. And after you have studied that, look at the chart below to compare the this set up to the 2007/2008 market.
The main difference between the left and right chart is how long the trend lines existed. To the left we had 65 weeks of support and resistance, and in the current instance we have almost 200w. This part is speculation, but I think the longer the move has taken to set up, the more impulsive it will be.


  • Support Turns to Resistance
  • Both have a bearish rising wedge getting us to the trendline
  • All the bearish indicators as detailed above.

The good thing is that these indicators also work with bullish divergence and bullish crosses, so in a few years the signals will be coming in on the weekly chart that you can go long again as an investor. But if you look at the signal to get out late in '08 the signal with bullish divergence to get back in does't come in until 2012 if you just use the MFI and OBV. If you trade the inverse head and shoulders you are in much earlier, and if you trade the BARR only a little latter.


Very likely we will have another BARR bottom, but the reversal structure at the bottom cannot be foreseen yet. Conversationally and coincidentally, the last bull runs on silver and gold both ended while the bullish divergence was building up on the SPX. I expect gold and silver to get a kick in the tenders along with everything else as people are forced to sell and then the rally on precious metals. After the weak hands are shaken out gold and silver pump until the bullish divergence shows up on the SPX again.

Comment



So far so good. Non-Farm payroll lead to a pump and people are selling the news. No new high and there is bearish divergence on the hourly. I already spend enough time paining the bearish scenario at higher time frames and so I still say we won't have a weekly candle close above 315 for spy or 3150 for SPX

For. Years.

Comment



Looks like we have a trendline for resistance that will keep us under 315 for SPY and 3150 for SPX/SPXUSD. By next week or so I don't think I'll have any more naysayers.
Comments
WafflesDxb
What are the chances that you will be able to pick out the top of a trending 10 year bull market? the market time and time again has been ripping in the faces of people just like you who can't put their biases aside.

“Trends are built on the dead bodies of those too ignorant to get out of the way of their own biases” Winternomics
theeverythingbubble
Bearish divergence on the weekly RSI was destroyed end of October, I'm not so sure...
apsnt
You know how it is with parabolic growth? It always breaks the ceiling a few times. People call it tops, they short, they get wrecked but then the actual top comes... and then permabulls get wrecked. You can't guess it.
This_Guhy
@apsnt, true, but you can't point to a call you made if you never make a call.
KassandrA_dotcom
Some bubble on CaC 40 :
FerroIgnique
My ROLFCoppter says soisoisoisoi. Permabears only make more money than bulls if they are selling products to the permabears they create like Schiff Golf or Zero Hedge. be a patriot. Go Long
This_Guhy
@FerroIgnique, As always, an inarticulate rebuttal.
FerroIgnique
@This_Guhy, You don't need to be articulate to know that bulls win over bears in the long term and no matter how hard you chart your only going to catch 4 or 5 20-70% retracements in your lifetime and your better of just going long.
The_Real_AMF
@FerroIgnique, why not trade both and win 2x. idk what the constant hate for perma bulls or perma bears is. if thats what your bias is then fine, but I'd be looking for opportunities both ways. Granted, a slow and steady bullish advance isnt as glamorous or dramatic as a big red dildo crash.
FerroIgnique
@The_Real_AMF do you think the top is in for the next several years?
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