Hey guys! So, let's get right into it with today's analysis. US Futures are trading slightly off the week's highs, as Asian and European markets slipped around 1-2 percent overnight. Jobless claims came in better than expected with 709k new claims and approx. 6.8MM continuing claims, while pandemic emergency claims continue to spike. Consumer price growth slowed notably, with CPI and core CPI coming in at zero percent. YOY CPI is now at 1.2 percent. The 10Y yield lost some steam overnight, and is sitting just off it's recent high around .93. Morgan Stanley recently said they expect a sharp rise in yields, imminently, and if you look at the 10Y chart, it's pretty obvious why they've come to that conclusion. The 10Y yield is up around 80% from the beginning of August.
- SPY key supports to watch today are 349.93 (which is the 50 period MA on the hourly), 344.58 (the second gap to fill from the Nov 4th close), and 339.62 (the 50 day MA). - The daily RSI is sitting at 64.78 which is showing we're getting close to those overbought levels. We just about hit an RSI of 80 on the hourly on Monday (79.97). - Vix is back to a 24 handle after some weakness yesterday, and saw it's lowest hourly RSI print in two and a half years this week. Needless to say, risk protection is currently heavily oversold on the hourly. - DXY is sitting around 93 at the moment, and is just begging for a shift in sentiment before it's epic return as King Dollar.
Best of luck out there today guys! If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
PS No live updates today unfortunately, I'm in the middle of moving so I have a lot on my plate, unfortunately. Cheers, Michael.
Great work! Would have loved to see the joy in your live updates today :) Enjoy moving!
Hedge_Of_The_World
⋅
@dustinmerryman, That means a lot buddy! Thank you. Packing boxes as we speak. Lol. Checking in to see price action every chance I get. Hope you're enjoying those puts! ;)
dustinmerryman
⋅
@Hedge_Of_The_World, Thanks man! I sold half and I am letting the other half ride the wave. UVXY is crushing it today as well.
Good charting my friend, totally agree. Without stimulus this will retest 2007/2008 highs....I am seeing at least 65-70% drop.
Hedge_Of_The_World
⋅
@rameshmb, Thank you my friend! I appreciate that. Imo this whole market is coming down like a house of cards. We've been entertaining a market build on hopes and QE for far too long.