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norok
Aug 2, 2021 11:54 PM

What's the Probability of SPY 500 End of Year? Education

SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUSTArca

Description

This is not a forecast of AMEX:SPY getting to 500... this video will instead demonstrate how we can answer this question using Options Delta to assess the probability the market expects for an event to happen. I use a backtest of NASDAQ:TSLA Weekly Options to demonstrate.
Comments
dmart120120
quick question at the end of the week would the option be exercised or would it just be sold for profit?
norok
@dmart120120, If you are trading options as a strategy you would not want to exercise and tie up buying power. For the purposes of the backtest it was assumed closing the option at the closing price of each week.
dmart120120
yolo end of year 500C on spy. gonna buy 100 at market open
Mihai_Iacob
Great chart
petrichors
Excellent as always.
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