- If memory serves, Biden was going to raise corporate taxes on millions of small businesses at the worst possible time.
- Trump said if Biden won, we'd see the worst depression in history because he would lock down the nation, and cause another market crash.
- Biden was going to kill big oil .
- Biden was going to face stark opposition on any stimulus proposal he brought forward.
- Some experts have said they're expecting stimulus in the realm of $700 Billion; that's not quite $2.2 Trillion.
Yet, (global) markets spike on the news that Trump is essentially conceding to Biden . I guess when you can print GDP, who needs an economy?
*Takes deep breath*
Let's see what's happening over on the SPY:
We gapped up on the open to around 360.21, off the back of the GSA news, and we're sitting just above the Megaphone trendline which is now sitting around 357.50. We're also kissing the upper trendline of the triangle/weak ( ) around 361.60. Finally, we're approaching the bottom of the formed over the past 7 months or so, now sitting around 362.50. We're outside the megaphone right now, and if we break above for the first time in 9 years, on the monthly, we could see a biblical short squeeze. Just a reminder folks, the end of the month is next Monday. As I said, until we see a clean break of the megaphone on the monthly, I ain't going anywhere...
Stay tuned for live updates throughout the day, and thank you for your time today guys. If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
Key prints to look out for tomorrow:
- Q3 GDP
- Durable goods
- Jobless claims
- Home sales
- Personal spending
- Consumer sentiment
- FOMC minutes
The next challenge for the bulls is to close us above the megaphone on the weekly, and then on Monday, to close us above on the monthly. That would, according to polarity principle, which imo applies with far greater weight to long-term time-frames, would completely end the bearish thesis.
As we discussed earlier, tomorrow is data heavy, and could result in increased volatility. Hopefully that presents us with some new and interesting trading opportunities.
I hope you guys had a great day, the weather in Canada is terrible right now, and people don't want to go out because of Covid. I've heard from friends all over that are struggling with lockdowns, that life is hard right now. I think we're all in the same boat, but remember, when things are terrible, they can only get better.
To the bulls: No one ever went broke taking profits.
To the bears: The first goal of a trader should be to make the best trade. As Alex Elder said, money is secondary.
Cheers guys, have a great night. Michael