The chart uses a combination of Elliott waves, trend channels, Fibonacci extensions and circle lines (the vertical dotted lines) to arrive at a target for the end of the fifth sub-minuette wave (purple roman numerals). The trend channel is derived from the trend line drawn across the July 3rd (purple ii) and July 16 (purple iv) bottoms. Upon reaching the upper channel line the fifth wave should be approaching its end. The price target of $173 comes from a Fibonacci extension sub-minuette wave i (purple v to i). The estimated termination date of wave v in the last week of July comes from circle lines based on the length of wave i. Primary Elliott wave analysis at stockmarketmonk.com/trend-analysis/spy-elliott-wave/
Comments
OldGoat
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Try your analysis on the E-Mini (ES1!) and see if you reach the same conclusion. You may also want to check the SPX and DJI; possibly the NDX. These should be closely correlated with SPY and point to similar conclusions; i.e. same pattern ending about the same time.
AncientM
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Nice ladder Stock M M...
imdp
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Interesting application of EW theory. I have no idea if it's correct (not saying it's incorrect) just different than how I ordinarily apply the rules. I agree another 3%+ is possible - JR perhaps even more so because of the light volume? Big Gann turning date tomorrow. That doesn't mean tomorrow will show a shift similar to May 22nd - just that the positive astrological seasonality is beginning to wane. High probability of an intermediate top forming over the coming 6 sessions. I'm using this last push higher to scale into shorts rather than build long positions. Just some guy's two cents!
StockMarketMonk
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Agree that this is the last push higher. I guess thats a benefit of being a small trader; a mouse can go where an elephant cannot. I just couldn't resist publishing with XLF and XLI breaking out so nicely today. To echo your scaling into shorts, I've written covered calls at 173 and am putting together a plan for the 3 wave corrective to end the summer
imdp
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Pretty work SMM
imdp
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I'm no expert on these things, but I pay much attention to a few who are. Jeffrey Cooper, Jeffrey Saut among others have pounded the table regarding shifting astrological seasonality; remains to be "seen" but I think we can all agree the "feel" of this market has changed. I'm not urging other to short, but am comfortable recommending reducing long exposure.
QuantitativeExhaustion
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yeah i agree. Grace Morris does a good job predicting price movements and rotation with astrological readings. astroeconomics.com/