$SPY not looking good.

Hello Traders,

I hope you all are doing well.

Notice the Head & Shoulder pattern on the chart. Good for Shorts though. If this H&S plays out we could see a significant drop, up to 6-10% from current levels. However, if there is some throwback on Monday, we could see a much weaker pullback. As I mention in the chart: If 431.25-431.75 support holds,we could see some throwback. Thus, weakening the pattern.

Either way, it doesn't look good. Everyone's saying "Putin's got Puts" on the market, well maybe so; I mentioned in my previous post that geopolitics hadn't yet been factored in, well now they are starting to. I would like to note, although geopolitics can affect the markets... In what we are seeing currently, the largest disruption would only be from 2 things: uncertainty (markets don't like) and potential disruption in crude oil distribution to our allies, which could be a good thing if you're bullish on gas/oil prices (bad for inflation).

Now is a great time to remember to practice good risk management. It'd be reckless to go all in on either side of the bull/bear coin, so as always.. know your levels, entry, exit, and stick to your strategy and rules.

Cheers,
Mike

(UPRIGHT TRADING)

Comment:

Still relevant, we saw a gap-down with the invasion of Ukraine. Geopolitical uncertainty is at the forefront and starting to be factored in now. Practice good risk management.