tipere445

Tomorrow: Make or break

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Good day folks,

Tomorrow will be a decisive day for this rally; it will either reverse short on continue with a lot of strength.


The RSI in many timeframe looks awful: double top in the 4 hrs , daily and weekly. So IMO , we need a breakout of these double-tops in the RSI tomorrow or there will be a selloff, triggered end of the day/next week, and it could be violent. VXX is, at the same time, making a double-bottom. And on top of that, tomorrow is Friday 13th! It just looks so awful.


If a breakout of the RSI is confirmed, well then a lot of upside is to be expected.


To resume; next week very bullish or very bearish . In the meantime, I'm sitting on cash, watching, and waiting to pull the trigger.

Have a nice Friday 13th!
Comment: A mini-flash-crash just happened, but it is still too early IMO to get in a trade at the moment.
Comment: Another 20 minutes before the 4hrs candle close. I think we could see some selloff soon, but Im really not sure, so I will open a lotto ticket just in case: CALL VXX 2018JUL13 32.00 (Dead cheap at around 0.10/contract, there is a good chance for it to expire worthless, but the risk is too good).
I have to leave for a BBQ soon, I will be watching on my phone from time to time though. Have a nice weekend!
Comment: Short
Comment: Looks like we are in a bull pennant. Let's see how it turns out; pretty boring atm.
Comment: Breakout on the 4hrs RSI, looks bullish!
Comment: I'm expecting a very similar day tomorrow; some selloff in the morning followed by green candle. Cheers,
Comment: Rally is over. As expected, selloff at the open, but as you can see, the triangle on the RSI was broken. It doesn't look good. A bit early to say it is a reversal, but we should know in a few hours, days. Cheers,
Comment: IMO the reversal is confirmed: we may have a pullback this afternoon and tomorrow, but next week should be ugly. I am short. Cheers,
Comment: I expect a gap up tomorrow morning for those who likes quick day trade.
Comment: Sorry folks i try to give you an opportunity to get in a quick trade, but if SPY doesnt close over 280.20, then dont take the trade. Chance that it works under this are very slim. Sorry,
Comment: Wait for the right shoulder then short the bastard!
Comment: I think that we could reach 278.50 by the close.
Comment: End of the week update
A successful and confusing trading day today. The market just doesn’t wanna drop; every time it does, it comes back. So, it is not easy.
Anyway, if you look at the weekly chart, you can see that we are very close from January high, and that the weekly RSI is making a double-top. Even though the chart looks very bearish (H&S, lower high, etc.), there is still a good chance that this double-top on the RSI doesn’t work out. The chart looks awful and the 4hrs RSI is falling, as such, I remain short unless new info suggests the opposite. We are still in an uptrend though, there is hope!
Have a nice weekend,
Comment: We are in a descending triangle right now, and it is holding. We should have a breakout Monday.
Comment: The uptrend channel is holding and the RSI suggests that we could see a rally soon. I sold my puts for a small profit and I may enter a bullish day trade. What I would to see is another test of the trendline; so another small dip than I will put the trigger on a few calls expiring today. Cheers,
Comment: I missed the rally today; no big deal, there are opportunities every day.
Tomorrow side way, wednesday at support?
That's the way i see it as of now, mainly because i think that we could face a lot of resistance at 280.50, and a quick rally to the previous high could involve too much buying which could exhaust it and make a double-top at the same time. Basically, I prefer a flat few days following by a rally at the end of the week (Thursday, Friday).
Trade closed manually: January again? I think that it is getting dangerously bullish. I'm closing this chart, and will post a fresh one latter.

Comments

Agreed. Gap up = danger signal beary. Right back at 252 on DIA and SPX up 20 is scary high again- never had a proper pullback I would not buy calls into this reeks of bull trap.
I also closed my short thank God sold the puts for 4.55 they are 3.40 today. Hang in there watch and wait- like a patient Spyder. GL!
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sheer genius
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Pattern developing looks exactly like 5-23; a short green candle next to enguilfing bearish one before the tumble
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Exactly m y thinking its making L > H > R? intraday now
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tipere445 DaddySawbucks
@DaddySawbucks, I just opened my short, good entry point imo. Lets see how it works out!
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DaddySawbucks tipere445
@tipere445, Good luck I bought a few more puts as well now we find out
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Agreed. Looks very beary. I bought puts today on the lift, now long the Aug 17 253 strikes in the money - Good luck!
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Did you win today? I rolled puts into calls and got most of the trading capital back. Just simply got in too soon, before getting confirmation. Good luck!
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tipere445 DaddySawbucks
@DaddySawbucks, I haven't no, mainly because the puts I had expired worthless, but I'm well positioned for the next few days. As long as it doesn't stay flat.
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DaddySawbucks tipere445
@tipere445, It's gonna top soon look for the signals then short
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