hasskhalife
Short

SPY - Potential Downturn

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
53 1 0
I'm short. Even though volume looks good - it seems OBV is topping out. If you look down to stochastic osc., they're pointing down. RSI is weakening, and the biggest sign I see, MACD crossover may happen in a day or so, we're also pretty high on MACD and this might be the start of a small correction. Or at least a profit-taking pullback.
svolk
2 years ago
I don't think you're necessarily wrong that a small pullback could be on its way. However, just to play devil's advocate, I'll point out some bullish indicators:

The 200, 50, 20, and 9 day MA's are stacked short over long. (Admittedly, that doesn't really portend that a very short pullback is unlikely, just that a significant one may not be on the way.) The OBV is high, yes, however, it was similarly high in the recent past and did not foretell a downturn (see November). I think the largest reason for skepticism is that this bull market has floated ever higher in the mid to top of its bolinger bands with short stubby candlesticks like we see here.

Tomorrow should be interesting as we'll get a test of the 20 day MA (on the other chart I'm looking at, today's low was very close.) My chart does show a MACDH sell signal and an RSI sell signal. I also see that implied volatility is relatively low but possibly hooking up (bearish).

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