Pretty clear waves can be seen here. I've had SPY $200 6/30 for a few weeks and it's pretty easy to not sell with such a clear picture seen.
I don't believe the first red downtrend will hold for wave 4, wave 4 seems more likely to take a couple weeks and test the second downtrend line. For this reason I would take wave 4 location with a grain of salt.
That said, I believe the wave 5 should easily hit the area indicated.
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Wave 3 went for another run down to the 2.272 and now appears to be forming wave 4 - this is being fueled by the optimism of the fed "bailout everyone" play. Once that news passes and the bad news stacks up.. wave 5 is gonna drill hard.
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Entering historic support zone, appears to be acting as resistance now
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"Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three" Check, check, and check. "Volume is well below than that of wave three." Check.