In 2008 we saw 5 waves down with the the last wave ending at a 2.272 extension. If we repeat history we should be seeing the exact same.
A 2.272 extension of 2019 will bring the SPY to 150.
Also look at the , from 2008, each time it did 2 lower highs, with divergence. Look what we have in 2019? The exact same with, 3 lower highs!
I am confident we should see a crash coming soon, and you should be looking to short stocks.
Firstly we should look at very overvalued stocks. So which stocks am i shorting?
Very hard to call a top; likely to put in by May, seasonal trend pivot.
Seems like we are in a Phase C UpThrust price move; the 'right shoulder' H&S pattern:
You can look at chart patterns all you want, but there has to be an impetus for the market to drop that far, and I don't see it happening unless China or Russia decide to start World War III. Be careful how you use charts, plenty of people here have already been burnt shorting this rally.
Second, the US economy is largely over inflated with interest rates far too low for the current levels. The FED cannot raise interest rates because of fear it will lead to large market corrections (i.e. 'recession'). These are signs of a weak, non-organic market, which can sometimes be referred to as a bubble. Although the December pullback was a very large correction, that bounce that took place was no different and has been fueled by media-propelled talks of China trade deals, a Brexit, government shutdowns, and the building of a wall. Once again, this has not been organic or sustainable growth.
Third and lastly, the market will push a little higher, to the 280s, and my guess is even beyond that. But within the next 2 years (as this analysis tries to lay out in an objective and technical manor) the US market will see a large pullback to more reasonable levels. While that setup is taking place, traders and investors trying to learn, understand, and play both sides of the market will adapt and overcome to make money, regardless of the direction, or what the media says. Investors like yourself, blind and ignorant to how such a marketplace works, but yet are the first to call someone stupid, will be the ones losing all their money as they continue to invest in a bubble. There were many like yourself back in 1999, and look how that played out. Please continue to watch CNBC as they tell you the economy is strong and you should load up on stocks. Every dollar that leaves your blind and ignorant pockets is another dollar that educated traders and investors can take from you as we adapt to a changing marketplace.