When looking at the 2008 recession i noticed some similirates. The first wave ended at a 1.618 extension which is also did in 2019. What next? We then had a impulsive wave up, touching the 0.618 extension of the 2nd wave up in 2008. In 2019 we are doing the same, but this time the wave went above the 0.618. It states that wave 2 can reach a maximum 0.786 extension before it invalidates.

In 2008 we saw 5 waves down with the the last wave ending at a 2.272 extension. If we repeat history we should be seeing the exact same.

A 2.272 extension of 2019 will bring the SPY to 150.

Also look at the RSI , from 2008, each time it did 2 lower highs, with bearish divergence. Look what we have in 2019? The exact same with, 3 lower highs!

I am confident we should see a crash coming soon, and you should be looking to short stocks.

Firstly we should look at very overvalued stocks. So which stocks am i shorting?


This index and its ETF are in a Wyckoff distribution pattern. Thanks for posting this fascinating insight, very thought-provoking ;a well-reasoned Bearish argument.
Very hard to call a top; likely to put in by May, seasonal trend pivot.

Seems like we are in a Phase C UpThrust price move; the 'right shoulder' H&S pattern:
And now for something completely different... Here's an alternate view- The 2008 recession may not have ended until 9/26/2011 in what may be viewed as a "running C" caused by Quantitative Easing (notice the 5 waves down starting on 5/2/2011). If true, we have just finished a minor wave 4 inside of wave 3. That will probably cause minor wave 5 to complete sometime before the next presidential election and then we should the beginning of wave 4 with the Big Crash sometime in the 2030's after wave 5. Okay, be gentle....
lbrayton lbrayton
@lbrayton, My bad, this was an old analysis for DJI. I still think the 2008 recession needs to be examined more closely, we may not have completed the retracement until 9/26/2011 in what can be viewed as a "running C" due to Quantitative Easing. Be kind....
Elliot waves show s&p at top of 5 wave so yea alternate count can show 5th wave extended but most likely bigger correction is due, can't wait for this!
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The fact that we are experiencing the longest bullpen in history should make anyone aware to the fact that we are due, any day, for that record to end. I hope those in denial prepare themselves properly. Hawk and I made money shorting the top of this previous as we noticed it coming and we will make money once again this time. Denial and greed is ripe amongst the masses and this is the perfect reason time to short, when that greed and denial has driven prices to all time highs. Again, GL to all.
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D0nDraper D0nDraper
Bull run*
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I mentioned this on another post, but Bear Sterns went belly up in March of 2008 and Lehman Brothers in September due to falling housing prices and subsequent MBS collapse. Unless you expect Goldman Sachs or Bank of America to suddenly fail next week, I wouldn't go buy those SPY puts just yet.

You can look at chart patterns all you want, but there has to be an impetus for the market to drop that far, and I don't see it happening unless China or Russia decide to start World War III. Be careful how you use charts, plenty of people here have already been burnt shorting this rally.
how stupid. The US Economy is so strong. Why do you say recession, heard it it the news?
SetNameAsJoe brooklynqueens
@brooklynqueens, First, it is not very nice to call someones idea stupid, especially when they express it in an objective and technical way using charts and historical data to show a logical viewpoint.

Second, the US economy is largely over inflated with interest rates far too low for the current levels. The FED cannot raise interest rates because of fear it will lead to large market corrections (i.e. 'recession'). These are signs of a weak, non-organic market, which can sometimes be referred to as a bubble. Although the December pullback was a very large correction, that bounce that took place was no different and has been fueled by media-propelled talks of China trade deals, a Brexit, government shutdowns, and the building of a wall. Once again, this has not been organic or sustainable growth.

Third and lastly, the market will push a little higher, to the 280s, and my guess is even beyond that. But within the next 2 years (as this analysis tries to lay out in an objective and technical manor) the US market will see a large pullback to more reasonable levels. While that setup is taking place, traders and investors trying to learn, understand, and play both sides of the market will adapt and overcome to make money, regardless of the direction, or what the media says. Investors like yourself, blind and ignorant to how such a marketplace works, but yet are the first to call someone stupid, will be the ones losing all their money as they continue to invest in a bubble. There were many like yourself back in 1999, and look how that played out. Please continue to watch CNBC as they tell you the economy is strong and you should load up on stocks. Every dollar that leaves your blind and ignorant pockets is another dollar that educated traders and investors can take from you as we adapt to a changing marketplace.
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