The ratio had a fake breakout last week and now falls back under the resistance. So it is still following 2008 and 2011 pattern very well, and thus it is still very likely we will have a significant SPY drop and a significant TLT pop.
consider the reality that this week, dow will slam 17K, Vix will be smashed, Nasdaq will NAS100 will catapult to 4000... SPX to 1975 in a July 4 holiday cresendo.... that is what will happen. After that, the big boyz may hit the sell button. Unless there is a black swam... volatility will rise, and market will wave viciously until the correction begins.
A-shot
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Argentina defaults. What is black swam?
claydoctor
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important others are touching the 200 ma, and watching them closely too, if they break down, watch out, if they bounce, watching carefully not dead cat. best of fortunes
stockSMASH
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agree... something brewing and it is here. buy signal in smashed down VIX. top of algos in nasdaq and spx... next few weeks is spot on... should be very energetic with the knowledge that there has been virtually NO correction for some time.. and when the big boyz start sellin, expect down 300 to 400 days or more... lined up
BeeHumble
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Nice. I am looking at the SPY as well, from a slightly different perspective, and have come to a similar conclusion.
Wow this is a strong statement to have it 'very likely'
CosmicDust
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Right, can be wrong but I do think it is very likely.
A-shot
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We have been waiting for this since year start. But markets tend to go higher. As the SPT/TLT goes lower, so TLT went higher as well
- GOLD went higher, adds to the negative pot
- Some blue chips went back a bit, with room to go lower
- Biotech went back a bit, so room to go lower
- We have Ukraine and Iraq being blamed for profit taking
- Oil laws changed today first time in 40 years regarding export.
So there are many other points to add to the bear case. Still, thanx for the chart - it does have indeed a lot of info in it. Saved it to check up once in a while.
CosmicDust
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Thanks the points, all good points. Yes, a bearish bet in a bull market can be frustrating. Fortunately TLT has been doing really well so far.
A-shot
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Predicting the top is the hardest thing to do, but better be early to the party than late - its better to take profits than to save from losses