Okay, been hard at work on my Elliott Wave analysis. I keep getting it slightly wrong. It is very hard to pick out the patterns with all of the noise. I made another large mistake last time! We are on Wave 5 now not Wave 4. We are on the last leg of Wave 5 and getting ready to go into correction. There is a slim potential for a little more upside, but this thing is about to come crashing down if my wave analysis is correct. I am on the sidelines for now.
Thoughts?
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I saw the drop starts around 11:30. If not, then wave 5 will be longer in time than wave 3. I believe that is not allowed.
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I meant to say I see (estimate) that it will start around 11:30. Have to wait and see.
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It just keeps going on low volume. Maybe 3150 by the end of the day, then a correction?
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Peaked exactly at 11:30 a little higher at 3120. If the trend matches with past tops, then the drop should start around 3:00. I would not be surprised to see a retest of 3120 before the drop starts. It is a reoccurring pattern to see a double top then the drop.
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One thing to note. It is possible that this is not the end of wave 5 and is instead the end of wave 3. If so, then there is one more leg up after a small correction. The next leg up would end around 3180.
I bring up this possibility because the height of wave 3 does not seem to be tall enough to meet the Elliott wave criteria. That leads me to believe that today could actually be the end of the wave 3 not 5.
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I give up. Its 3:30 and it is moving up towards 3130. Either I suck at Elliot Wave analysis or this irrational exuberance is unstoppable. No significant pullbacks at all during this 2 week long motive wave, just little dips. I am all out of ideas. Where did all the sellers go?
@Dr_Roboto There's strong resistance at 3120 SPX and it's pulling back from there right on cue. Question is, how many more days up before a clear turnover? It's very close. I wonder if they can push it one more today
Dr_Roboto
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The snip-it below seems to be the exact case IMHO. I can feel every where on the internet the urge to want to capitulate and buy in. The FOMO is strong. However, that is when everything drops. Once the large institutions feel like they have gotten every last penny out of every last sucker. All I do know is that the Elliott Wave theory has model things very well so far since the bottom. Well, when I implement it properly. If I did it right this time, then the corrective wave is at the door step.
4.4 Wave 5
Wave 5: In Elliott Wave Theory, wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received)
The wave 5 lacks huge enthusiasm and strength found in the wave 3 rally. Wave 5 advance is caused by a small group of traders.Although the prices make a new high above the top of wave 3, the rate of power or strength inside wave 5 advance is very small when compared to wave 3 advance
merkd1904
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Does look like we’re running out of steam. BUT, there needs to sellers in the market. Past few days there are none.
McBull
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market has been bonkers these days, I can see the FOMO growing