SPY has moved almost as predicted in my October post (see below - load new bars and enjoy the magic!).
Although wave 4 has moved quite a bit above the predicted level - right into the Wave 2 territory - SPY could still drop down to 2100-2200 levels after facing resistance at the upper trendline. It appears that SPY is developing an expanding diagnoal pattern instead of a typical five wave impulsive pattern but that doesn't change the bigger picture shown in the chart below.
Invalidation: This pattern will be invalidated if SPY develops a support above the upper trendline.
PS: This analysis is just for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your own research and trade at your own risk.
October SPY Idea
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Alternate scenario: An alternate scenario is possible where wave A is already complete (three waves instead of five waves originally suggested) and SPY is now moving up in wave B.
PS: This analysis is just for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your own research and trade at your own risk.