Leclaireur

SPY - VXX : Wave 5 then favored breakdown

BATS:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
1102 62 9
Vix             at all time lows showing some kind of cup bottom while exhausted market is doing third and last bullish burst?
nathanielT
3 years ago
VVX is at all time lows because of the futures roll component which causes decay. Look to the VIX for the real measure. That still has a bit to go down to be at yearly lows, as well as VVIX which still isn't at all time lows. Agree with the pattern though. I think we have to head down very soon. I wouldn't be surprised if it was now. However, I would like to see a 12 print on the VIX first.
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OldGoat nathanielT
3 years ago
We hit 12.52 in the VIX at 11:02 this morning. Yesterday's ES1! also has a pretty red candle that should attract some attention. I suspect we have turned, at least that is the way I am playing it in equities.

And thanks for the chart Leclaireur.
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Feeling that seven year itch?
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Leclaireur QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
markets very exhausted :)
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO Leclaireur
3 years ago
yeah... Plotting my planned trades.
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Leclaireur
3 years ago
Looks like a breach!!!
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO Leclaireur
3 years ago
yeah did we reach the tipping point
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Leclaireur QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
could be the real correction I've been waiting for, the triple top on the weekly looks so similar to 2008
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO Leclaireur
3 years ago
This one has an ascending neckline. Much different than 2008 Triple Top
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Leclaireur QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
2000 had an ascending neckline too, 2008 was ascending until last bull trap.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO Leclaireur
3 years ago
I'll have to check that. Remember trading the 2008 Triple Top, very distinct horizontal line drawn between troughs. March-April 2007, Sept-Oct. 08 and Dec 08
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Leclaireur QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Bull run is very exhausted, it got up fast and far from moving averages just like 2000 and 2008, it will correct big sooner or later.
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Leclaireur QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Back to 1500, why not?
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO Leclaireur
3 years ago
I'm hesitant to think that. This is all political, and this time we have our credit rating reaffirmed to AAA. I say buy this dip, because it would move much higher on a shutdown/debt ceiling deal. Including a 6-8 week temporary fix.
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Leclaireur QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Ascending neckline is broken from today.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO Leclaireur
3 years ago
Well, it's not a Triple Top if the neckline is more than 3 degrees ascending. It's actually an ascending wedge top. If you look at these patterns, you'll notice the dip and rip, as the bullish trend continues to new highs. You can trace out a 1.618 extension (where the bottom is reached to previous high) to find the new high.
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Leclaireur QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Of course I noticed its not a technical triple top, I call it triple top because it has 3 tops like in 2000 and 2008.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO Leclaireur
3 years ago
Oh your talking that kind of time frame. I thought you meant the Triple top on your chart. I would disagree with you on the 2000, 2008 and 2013 tops, as a triple top pattern. Again neckline is nearly 30 degrees.
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Leclaireur QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Also take a look at Vix and Faz, they just started a bull run against the bollinger bands. I think this is just the start.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO Leclaireur
3 years ago
Are you telling me we should expect a real deep correction... like 50%?
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Leclaireur QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Well I am expecting that personally, but not predicting it, you can never predict that. Right now Im looking for at least a big correction to go back at least 1550 on 60 weekly moving average.
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Leclaireur Leclaireur
3 years ago
snapshot
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO Leclaireur
3 years ago
Maybe we should be looking for a buy near the previous low (4)
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KevinT QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Hey guys. Having a market crash discussion woithout moi?

snapshot
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We have a mildly bearish candle stick pattern. Slightly bearish
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KevinT QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
This chart is from 7 Oct. isn't it?
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It's the weekly chart for DOWT
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KevinT QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
So Transport is running behind on Dow and SP500? This is interesting.
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KevinT KevinT
3 years ago
Usually Transport is the leader.
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Probably not. It's been the leader forever.
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Leclaireur KevinT
3 years ago
hehehe, not anymore garcon :)
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KevinT Leclaireur
3 years ago
Peche toi hehhehe
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO Leclaireur
3 years ago
DOWT is saying to the rest of the market, "forget you, I'm headed to 7,000, You can catch me late".
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Leclaireur KevinT
3 years ago
Great chart Kevin, see, that triple top is even on the 2011 correction.
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KevinT Leclaireur
3 years ago
Thanks mate.
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yeah 2011 did have a mild Triple Top with a near 3 degree horizontal/ascending neckline. One might conclude that we are seeing some kind of triple top here. Where was the DOWT July-August 2011? Already making it's bottom with a big correction. Where is it now?
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Exact opposite in 2011 from todays' pattern and stock price action. In July 2011, DOWT started turning down hard. In 2013 DOWT is still in a bullish cycle.
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BTFD. There's no angry bear to worry about. DOWT is bullish so we have to remain bullish. The Federal Reserve even dropped the taper talk. QE infinity is still in play
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Most likely outcome... we see new highs out of this mess
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KevinT QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
JR: ur confusing me. I'm metally all bearish :P
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I can see that. Don't avoid the DOWT chart. Signaling to buy this dip
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KevinT QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Is Monday and Tuesday included in DOWT chart? Bc if I go over the chart, the last dat is 7 October.
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Should show today's candle in two hours.
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Still waiting on intraday index charting.
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Leclaireur QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Dreaming in color, muahahah
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KevinT Leclaireur
3 years ago
Dreaming of 77 virgeins hehehehehhe
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KevinT KevinT
3 years ago
*/ virgins :P
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here you go
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Leclaireur QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
https://www.tradingview.com/v/omooIzsQ/
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO Leclaireur
3 years ago
See there you go, something positive to look forward to.
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KevinT Leclaireur
3 years ago
Ok. Now I'm all over confused @.@
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KevinT Leclaireur
3 years ago
What does this chart imply?
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KevinT
3 years ago
Hudge negative divergence on transport

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you're right you are a perma bear. That chart also shows support within the divergence. I'd buy on the next dip at that support level you show in that chart.
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KevinT
3 years ago
Nope. I'm a Teddy Bear. Lol.
You mean channel support? With a optimistic view, it can be a flag. But it is a week chart. So till the bottom is reached, better go with the flow isn't it?

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If your talking flow, as in past few days, then your flipping stocks. I'm looking at bigger trend. We are nearing a crucial point. We either saw the low today or we will see a low by the end of this week. If not, and we start seeing diverging descending line (hidden divergence) with rising bottoms, then we are in trouble.
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KevinT
3 years ago
Ah I see. Just different in way of trading. You are a long term trader as I'm a day(s) trader :)
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Leclaireur
3 years ago
snapshot
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Leclaireur
3 years ago
snapshot
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AlexandreFF
3 years ago
Indeed seems a good point of view we're heading for 7 fail !
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