This is simply an analysis, not an invitation to go short or long, please do your own research
As you can see besides the technical analysis indicating a possible fall for SPY, we have also many fundamentals which pushes me to say that there is a decent probability we can see SPY go down to support before either going back up to top channel, or completing the ascending channel and going below the bottom channel, which at that point a recession is very likely. This will depend on the election results mainly in my opinion.
We can't forget about the fact that half a year ago we saw the dividend yield reversal, which has been a great indicator for recessions (Which I don't see happening right now). The current market is driven purely by greed. Pretty much everything is trading at values that are much higher than they are supposed to be.
Political uncertainty in the US is also very important to remember, we have elections coming up soon and besides that we also have massive proposals from candidates like Bernie Sanders which are proposing a massive reform to the economy. The DNC and the censuses will be big players in helping us trace market movements as they have in the past.
An economic slowdown is still not yet obvious, consumer spending has been doing great for the last couple of years and companies are releasing great reports and earnings, but that doesn't mean that SPY is correctly priced today, I find a price correction likely.
No one can predict with certainty where the market will be in a year or two, which is why I need to repeat that this is not a signal or any sort, but purely what is currently happening in the market.
If you have a different opinion or if you believe I got something wrong feel free to leave a comment.
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Just did an update on SP500, check it out
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Check out my latest update.
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Bottom of channel has been hit. Looking at fundamentals I wouldn't say that we have a very hard chance of seeing it bouncing back up but only time can tell.
Good analysis. The volume profile is important. Volume has been going down down down drying up with market at incredible highs.. we are due for an enormous amount of volume... And that will most certainly come from a ton of selling pressure.
BeingBuffet7
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Informative post. Clarity in the sea of TradingViews collaboration of incomplete opinions. Thanks and keep it up!
AndrewMAlfonso
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Very spot on. Great take, however Bernie is not going to win.
tonite
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@AndrewMAlfonso, I have to agree on the part that Bernie won't win -- I really don't think he is, but it is very possible he will be trumps opponent which I think may somewhat impact the markets.