Terrific rally to the 0.786 Fibo; looks like a slamdown at 290 today. We all expected a rally, but this one blew us away. Now we are back in the middle; higher prices but <ATH.
Got a Shooting Star Doji at the Fibo. Looking back I marked not less than 12 similar instances in past >year. Pullback seems imminent; look carefully, however, you may find at least three similar Doji's that fooled us. Cautiously shorting in anticipation of trade and Fed combo worries leading up to FOMC meet next week. No guarantees in this game.
Two roads diverge at the meeting: a rate cut will trigger massive upside explosion and race to new ATH in July. EW theory suggests we may be in a 2nd of 5th wave, if so, a 3rd-of-5th would be terrifically bullish, a final blowoff meltup to cap the final surge of the Great Bull. These Elliot Waves are always and only clear in the Retrospectometer.
FOMC Disappointment... well, you know.
Trade at your own risk; GLTA!
Trade active
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Blowoff gap up failed post inflation report- no incentive for a rate cut.
Looks like it has turned Tues; looks like the pattern for top in Feb, Mar 2018 and 4 Mar, 01 May 2019- gap up above star, then pivot reversal. I bet on lower soon.
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Market holds it breath and marks time. In US 30, 15/15 up/down on Weds. Futurz -100 overnite but trades +/-30 in AM; it's just waiting IMO. S&P =/-4 pips, hardly a selloff. Closed shorts for modest gains, as R/R is poor now. Some days it's better to not be in the market!
Trade active
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We got a double inverted H&S; on the hourly charts, and on the 5m charts in the 11 AM deep dip. It's a setup for meltup. Went long calls, flipped some puts in the AM.
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Seems to be headed for 1.618 Fibo at 301.8. Might revisit 291 first b4 blowup.
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Definitely moving higher. Probly gonna get a big pop on 1 July and rally on light volume into the holiday week on foolish trade optimism. Friday 5 July after the 4th will probly balloon higher as major players will be at the beach and distribution will be light. Expect more chop and churn thereafter; possibly new ATH by 03 September.
I still think we need to go down before we head higher just to get rid of all f the sellers and create a bear trap. It's what the market usually does, plus the market looks weak anyways.
DaddySawbucks
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@hungry_hippo, I thought so too, but I've been fooled, as recently as... Thursday last.
hungry_hippo
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@DaddySawbucks, lol, yeah it happens. Sometimes indicators fail when there real news (interest rates). Can't give up just because of one bad trade.
hungry_hippo
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Nice. It's time to totally ignore fundamentals and trade strictly on recognizable patterns. Make sure you look at the patterns on futures if you plan to hold overnight on anything (short or long).
DaddySawbucks
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@hungry_hippo, We got a cup + handle and inverted H&S in the cup on day. I'm long; agree nothing matters but greed and no fear.
hungry_hippo
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Yup, I'm expecting the same. Big Monday rally on low volume, a little follow through on Tues, some selling on Wed, followed by the usual 401k payday Ponzi Friday.
Look at the volume on small caps Friday, a lot of shorts covered their positions. A few small caps hit ATH volume on no news (higher than earnings even). IWM volume was 3rd highest day this year.
Trump decided no additional tariffs so retailers will rally and small caps usually rally with retail.
chinawildman
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dangerous here... it just hit the .618 retrace of today's leg down and reversed... feels like it could be the start of a wave iii down.
Peterson
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two words : wage inflation , it started several months ago
chinawildman
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I think even if the Fed cuts rates, we'll see a one day swell that starts a multi-week downtrend. Take a look at Oct 31 2007... When the fed cuts rates when the market is near an ATH it means the market should not be near an ATH.
DaddySawbucks
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@chinawildman, Indeed. my 'feeling' is that prices have no bizness to get so damned high, but here thay are; being a perennial bear has prevented many losses over the years, but missed out on some terrific opportunities.