TNasr

SPY, heads or tails?

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Dear all, thanks for reading this post. Lets get right to it. In my last post ( SPY is playing Fibonacci Pinball) I noted that the market was difficult to read and was giving no clear signs as to its direction. This was b/c we had seen multiple higher lows (w/ decreased volume on each higher low which was a bullish sign) and higher highs in the ascending channel we were in. This channel has now broke, this is not a complete surprise to me as we are still in a corrective mode and I expect this market to dip. Also note that a red volume symbol at the bottom the the chart indicates that we have witnessed an uptick on volume during a dip, a reversal of the previous pattern.

Per the two small rectangular shaded regions we see that over the past three weeks the .786 & .618 Fibonacci lines have served as very accurate support/ resistance lines a total of 10 times! Going forward I anticipate we will break more support lines. Even if the pennant we are currently in demarcated with red trend lines breaks to the upside I still believe we will head down eventually. In the grand scheme, beyond the scope of this chart remember we are still in a 5 wave impulsive bullish set up that will likely take SPY much higher in 2019 than the 2018 highs.

Once the .236 support in our current bearish set up breaks, and I'm anticipating it will before this correction runs its course, we may be nearing completion of the correction and it will be probably be time for a bullish re-orientation. This is because we are most probably in a flat corrective wave (one of three types of corrective waves according to Elliot Wave analysis) which means that the C wave, completing the A-B-C corrective structure may run its course in a similar spot to the A wave, demarcated with a orange line with an arrow in the graph. By the same token in a flat corrective wave, wave B terminates near the origin of wave A, again demarcated with a orange line with an arrow in the graph. I am also leaning towards this hypothesis b/c of all the abnormal strength we have seen during this correction and SPYs tendency to rocket after touching the upper 250s. I will not wait for lower prices only to watch the market head up and lose a good buying opportunity. My two cents, I welcome all questions, comments, and criticism.

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