2 days ago I published this idea based on Elliott Wave Theory. After some feedbacks, remarks and comments about the weird-long correction of the 4th wave in PRIMARY degree (green line), the recounting has been carried out, which is also shared in the previous idea. After that one can conclude that we are already in the deep correction phase because, in my opinion, the previous ATH in February 2020 corresponds to the end of the long-term 3rd wave of SUPERCYCLE degree. If we accept this hypothesis and take the actual ATH at approx. 360/share as the end of B wave, the 3-3-X correction is in progress where X can be further unfolded to the more complex correction. In my opinion, which is also in good agreement with Glenn Neely long-term prediction presented in youtube.com/watch?v=BGpJfYJG1v0. The Expanding Triangle can be very likely forecasted formation, where to let me again address to the book "Elliott Wave Principle" written by Frost and Prechter, where is stated that usually, either C or D wave are complex waves consisting of ZigZag combination or Triangle, but for Expanding Triangle no waves (A-B-C-D-E) is formed by triangle formation itself that results to only one option - ZigZag combination. Because the market is still in a good mood, no rapid impulse formation in a downtrend (as A wave of ZigZag) has not been observed until now. This situation is labeled as W-X pair on the graph. However, if this is really true, a big surprise is still silently waiting for traders and investors that after the horror revival creates panic and massive sell-off, that leads to the ZigZag subsequent formation (wave Y on the graph).
My apologies if I scared you very much, but Damocles's sword just started to twitch.
This is one theory, where we are in a highly extended wave B in a supercycle wave 4. Another can be that we have finished wave 4 and are currently in supercycle wave 5. Tbh, just follow the price action. VIX is still showing a large amount of put options out there so people are bearish for sure. But we could be approaching a fractal subwave 2 of supercycle wave 5. Who knows lol either way both correspond to being short.
Dr_Roboto
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Good analysis and nice chart. Thanks for sharing.
Kovinko
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@Dr_Roboto, Nice counting. I looked at the SKEW index, and seem that Funds starting to hedge their positions, so the downtrend formation is very likely.