According to the CICO report and Cashflow indicator, the selloff began two days ago.
Hello friends, its been a minute. I try not to overwhelm you with daily noise. My intent is to give only important information. Trust me, if you heard from me everyday you would be annoyed.
According to the CICO 13 MA on the daily chart, we had our first red day in about a month. What this means is the running sum of new money is leaving the SPY. More people are selling than buying; they want their cash. When a sell off begins the only certainty is nobody knows when it will end. I am a self proclaimed bear. What this means is I naturally prepare for results to be the worst case scenario and then I peel back layers of the emotional onion. Meaning, I think of the worst possible scenario and then question the reasoning. My goal is to uncover as much information as possible and then make a decision. I try to look at the good and the bad in totality. Being thorough in a decision is very important to me.
However, the unique thing about the stock market is it has no feelings. Computer programs literally ignore emotion. Machine learning and AI are currently trading against you and they don't care about the impeachment or a trade war.
I want our politicians to work together and solve problems. I think our present circumstances present a unique opportunity for unity. I'd suggest that border security is both digital and physical. Democrats want digital security from the Kremlin. Republicans want physical security on all borders. I suggest a comprise that all Americans want, complete security.
Please focus on making life better for all Americans, not just half of us.
I'd love to hear your feedback on the indicators listed. Leave them a like if they help you in anyway. I hope you take your money back today.
I am also short - technically not "short" but long a few put spreads - based on RSI and Bollinger Band levels on the daily chart, as well as candlestick patterns and volume analysis. IV ranks were super low a about a week ago, but the VIX started creeping up over the last few days. It seems like if one were to use long options strategies, now would be the time.
Do you have any particular time frame in mind for your short position? Also any thoughts on the big drop off on the 1-minute chart today (12/5/19) in the late afternoon. Volume of 1.742M in just 1 minute with a lot of selling pressure - not much considering the SPY sees an average daily volume of many millions, but seemed like a lot really quickly
Johnny_Nickles
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@thisbemax, Unfortunately I can not commit to a time frame on being short. The markets change every minute. I just focus on following trends. Basically, when the CICO or sum of new money changes direction and it is confirmed I change my view on the market. The 1 minute chart in the afternoon on 12-5 is very interesting. That is a large firm placing a large sale and other bots piggy backing off the trade. However, this could also be a fake out meaning they sold and bought them back right away. What I am watching for now is what happens when price hits record highs again. Does the price action surge through records or does it sell off quickly? I hope that answers your question.
drees
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Democrats only pretend to want border security. They're platform is open borders according to the current list of candidates.
Johnny_Nickles
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@drees, I agree. I do think they would be onboard with digital border security though
Do you have any particular time frame in mind for your short position? Also any thoughts on the big drop off on the 1-minute chart today (12/5/19) in the late afternoon. Volume of 1.742M in just 1 minute with a lot of selling pressure - not much considering the SPY sees an average daily volume of many millions, but seemed like a lot really quickly