Finally bounce ! I think its tracing abc line after a March lows run up. currently climbing to "b" , should reach something like $287 and then down to $244. I think "c" will merge with big H&S thats forming. I wouldn't be surprised If Feds start printing money again at around $287 ; in that case entire setup will go to dust. Good luck ! PS I dont have position in SPY as it was painful trying top short it in past few weeks :)
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so far my top is to the penny :) Lets see if bears come in force and win over Feds
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I went short at 289, hope feds will run out of bullets.
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nice pullback in the last trading hour; seams to be going according to the plan. Its a bit oversold on 5min, so I went cash for now and will see whats brewing in the morning.
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SPY continues on the weak side. I think it will close red today, supporting the idea. I am on the sideline waiting for clear picture
A thing to watch here would be a divergence on the B bounce. The strength of the divergence may give us a hint on how deep the C wave would be
Petrichor_
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What length of time for your put contracts?
abigreen
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@Money2020_ET, I trade spxs and spxl
inteist
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100% agree, seeing the same thing - just the shoulders should be MUCH more shallow IMO. I published the same idea 10–15 minutes ago. Notice that the neckline is slopping and you have to track the decline from the neckline. However it plays out, we'll see. With the FED - I don't know I learned the hard way (seemingly just like you) not to fight the FED.
Petrichor_
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God, I hope you're right. This analysis looks great, and is consistent with us being in a credit contraction cycle which should complete soon (at 2454 as a first target, lower from there). My guess was that Fed would brrrrr around 2400.
inteist
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@Money2020_ET, the FED was BRRRing non stop this whole time.
Petrichor_
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@inteist, agreed, I mean announce more BRRRing around 2400 ish.
abigreen
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@Money2020_ET, Thank you
I also think opening economy is sale the news event.
technicals however make less importance due to Feds actions.
If we dont reverse this week, then I am hopeless :)
Petrichor_
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@abigreen, couldn't agree more. I made a joke last week ... if it breaks 3000 and stays there, I'm burning my stock book library, and starting life over teaching kids how to make piles of play-doh. lol