SPY Complex Correction In Progress

We thought the downdraft in October marked "ABC" on chart was the correction. But... We got another pivot at the .62 Fibo, where B turned, now X turned again.

Looks like we got a larger WXY wave. ABC was the W that formed first bottom. If this pattern completes, expect -33 on the ABC leg to approximate the X-Y leg.

This would put Sand P down around 252. For starters. Let's see how it plays. In my humble opine, we are entering bear market, started 4 October. Sorry!

This isn't advice, it's a half-baked idea, trade at your own risk and good luck!
Nov 12
Trade active: The X-Y leg will be a complex impulse with a 5-wave structure, a real 'C' leg. Any rallies will be short opportunities, until Donald makes peace with China. Rest of world markets are already in bears- some bourses down >25% already. It's ugly...
Nov 13
Trade active: Looks good but I sense some bullishness may return don't be surprised if it lifts off this support level reaching back to top of the gap, and before that, to bottom of A wave, before we backfill it.
Nov 18
Trade active: Bear flag forming- nice pennant. R @ 275- expect rejection there for a right shoulder:
Looks a lot like 12 March pattern again...
Dec 07
Comment: A .38 - .50 retrace is possible in this final wave before the deep sink to 253 or less. Be cautious and never feel badly for giving the last dollar to some other trader!
Dec 11
Trade active: Looks good for an ABC-X-ABC correction in which we find ourselves now in the final C wave. Likely going down to finish up the Y wave for WXY, where final ABC = Y; after which we could get a massive upside relief rally. Charted Y wave ending at 252 is still a valid projection.


nice call!
DaddySawbucks MrMarketMaker
@MrMarketMaker, tyvm. I made a little bit trading shorts but this is so wildly volatile, whipsawing makes it really hard to play. GLTA!
Good analysis. I had a different count. A 5 waves down from 293 to 260. Yes, wave 5 = wave 3 and wave 3 > wave 1 is a correct count (5 waves). From 260 to 280 a 3 waves is a possible count. That means 1-2 or a-b sequence...

Wave 3 or c is underway???
DaddySawbucks allanrcferreira
@allanrcferreira, I reckon it's a C wave. The countertrend movement did not have organized impulse pattern, there was no five-wave structure to it, so it was a B.
This C wave should have an impulsive structure, if so, we are in a wave 2 (countertrend, so an up wave 2) bear flag now, expect wave three in a week or so, it will be rough. GL!
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