Kind of looking for a bit of upside tomorrow on SPY. MAYBE.
Reason being mostly that there was no capitulation today. SPY bounced back after damning results. And leading up to CPI release, SPY really seemed to want to rally but the gravity of the results omitted the rally from starting. While SPY did not make new highs or reclaim old highs, the bounce was still noteworthy IMO.
Furthermore, we hit my time series target for this week and I see SPY has slowed down a bit and is not interested in barrel rolling through my bearish targets. I think its not UNREASONABLE to expect SOME upside.
SPY may look weak, but really I don't see it when I look at it from a math based perspective. If we look at today for example, you see that SPY surpassed the mathematical bull targets and did not even come close to touching the bear targets until after hours:
The chart looks bearish, but we should all know by now the charts and patterns have been somewhat misleading this year.
Not planning to play SPY per sé, but planning on watching it closely. My plan for tomorrow is IWM with an ideal long entry in the 168 zone. Otherwise, I am short biased on IWM in the 174 range.
Also, make no mistake, SPY is bearish. Short is the correct answer here until SPY breaks out of this descending channel. This is more for you day traders out there. I don't expect this to go parabolic and go to 400 anytime soon. I just think we could see some unconvincing upside. But I also don't recommend shorting from the 70s either. Be patient with your entries if you are planning on shorting.
The only thing that will change SPY's bearish trajectory is if SPY breaks out of this descending channel. Then we can talk 400s and beyond. Until then, I am looking for SPY to want to play around in the 80s tomorrow. If we open in the 70s, 381 is what I want to see. If it is actually connivingly bullish, 384.
If this turns out to be bearish, we can say hello to 370.
Anyway, this is just my thoughts. Very little analysis was involved in this so it could be very wrong. I will post something more concrete over the weekend.
Trade safe! Enjoy the rest of your week everyone!
Trade closed: target reached
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Ended up playing this long via UPRO shares. Sold at end of day before close. Don't feel confident swinging into tomorrow but I do anticipated some continuation here.
ALways food for thought. Much appreciated and all the best for you.
Peterson
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Solid commentary Steve. I suspect that although what is being experienced with terrible news and numbers, the years of punchbowel monetary policy along with weekly phrases telegraphed ad nauseam such as " priced in" and " baked in" as though the all knowing talking heads are oracles beyond reproach is a very dangerous herd mentality drink the koolaid moment in time that will collapes epically, but not without a failed fight.
Steversteves
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@Peterson, Completely agreed! That is why I try to keep my bullishness in check these days because bullishness tends to lead to massive losses. I really try to minimize swinging long now as a rule because of this. But intra-day, I don't mind. Thanks for the comments as always!
I am bearish until after the summer, Christmas will be lit
Peterson
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Oh, I forgot those that run companies that are usually very large companies neither admit nor deny guilt in the court of law by way of their malfeasance securing shareholder value, after all why should shareholders suffer for unethical decisions, shareholders should suffer that is the risk involved,buy the dip . What a joke
SHOOZCOIN
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@Peterson, I'm not following, are you long or short?
Peterson
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@SHOOZCOIN, Short till mid/late Oct than I believe markets rally into year end. Next Feb/Apr starts next leg down imho.