Large Institutional traders are sitting down under the 50/100 day SMA and have been doing so since the FED meeting in Jackson Hole and the 1sr QE announcement. IMHO. They add slowly in dark pools to their long term positions and watch the Algos drive the market up taking out shorter term traders with the manipulation of volatility..This most recent downdraft shows how quickly things can change as the market is at extreme margin levels. The volume plays some into this but the overall market has changed with the BOTS and is now about arbitrage trading, liquidity from central banks and volatility.. It will take a major news event for this to change as many of the currency pairs are in a tight squeeze consolidation on long term charts
If you go short tomorrow, you will either have to endure a breakout out of the channel which should return in by summer or you will be spot on. You can also just wait for a big down day, especially on good news..like Ukraine resolved. This would be the classic down on good news. Look for the shooting star candle, heavy volume. Keep your powder dry and try to recognize that day. It feels like its soon.
I would perceive low volume as a bullish indicator. My reason is because if a large investor really wanted to they can go into the marketplace when volume is low and buy up all the orders on the market makers order book. I'm just brainstorming here, but the way the market has been trading generally would make me assume such an event to happen. Where do you forecast SPY to be in the year?
The scaling for the time seems to be off on the chart. This will produce a false time target. My target is 169 to the lower channel. Probably not a straight line and would likely go lower. Use my channel as the guide. The date I gave you will be off. This must be an issue with the charting software. After 2014, the space between years appears smaller.