See Chart and Previous Idea. Can refine to more precise expectations from here, still just approximates. Near-term downside risk still to 362, but probability favors technical bounce from here which could trigger a squeeze... and if SPY wants to bounce exactly at the bottom of the expanding triangle I drew in, chances are it will continue to respect it 4 legs in.
I just used an If-then statement conditioned on leg (d) being realized at today's low and a gap fill to 389.75 occurring following FOMC. From there I populated most likely path to (e) via Elliot Wave mixed with Witchcraft. So, something like: 370.59 -> 389.75 -> 380.54 -> 411.55 -> 397.72 -> 429.67.... -> 385.15 ------> breakout of expanding triangle at 444.29 later on in 2022.
The pasted image of the 5min SPY chart is zoomed in at the price action, thus far around the visible span of this supermoon (closest orbit to earth will be tomorrow at 7:24pm.. FEDS be spookin'). It implies a local downtrend line was broken going into close, we still need to get back above the red downtrend line at the higher time frame around 379-380 to attempt first gap-fill. My gf sent me the screenshot of the moon thing and says we're going to moonwalk.. shes a witch. The (W) C above the pasted image, that stands for Witchcraft.
I hope I see you all on the moon by end of June, else pray for my soul.
Imperio, HeWhoMustNotBeNamed
P.S. The big money doesn't know Occlumency
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Bulls take. We broke the red downtrend resistance and managed to close above it, the precise level I have is 379.01. Bulls take.
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Zoom in to the 1 minute and pull up the stochasticRSI. That's what I look for right before lift off. We'll see here soon. I'm adding long here [1:11pm EST]
You don't think there will be pump in the morning and dump later? you don't think SPY will go 364 anymore? futures are up :). so the solid lines are likely and dotted lines are alternatives? again, thanks for the great work! I agree with this analysis, I had a similar analysis in mind. Nice to have some confirmation!
JerryManders
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@quynhpham48975, anything could happen tomorrow.. I'm long SPY, TQQQ, TSLA, GME, LRCX, BMBL, BYND... if that answers your question
JerryManders
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@quynhpham48975, I'm long DDS
quinnie0930
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@otwa2113, cool, I usually track QQQ not SPY but I can convert. Are you playing the short squeeze? I'm long BYND too, UPST & NVAX. hoping for this aggressive bear rally for this coming week :).
JerryManders
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@quynhpham48975, I'm playing the potential beginning of a wave 5 to new ATH
quinnie0930
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@otwa2113, I would love to sit back and long instead of playing these swings, I think you're too ambitious though. There's just not enough liquidity out there and retails have already scared/wiped out. We have stagflation and will be in pain for at least 1.5 year. I see SPY reaching 437 to 450 though. What are your reasons for ATH? Fed also wants 1 Trillion back each year to balance its sheet. 95B alone this summer.
JerryManders
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@quynhpham48975, Look at that bullish cypher on UPST.. it wants 54-64 near-term.. 76-86 mid-term. For market I just let the math tell the highest probability of where its headed and I trust in that. We'll see SPY 500+ by early 2023, after that look out below. I don't think anyone has seen an etf get cut in half for quite a while (hah, besides ARKK, oops)... but we're not there yet
quinnie0930
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@otwa2113, oh yeah for sure, everything is gonna be a rising wedge - I expect these guys to run up quite aggressively within the next 2 weeks. your mid term is my near term target :-