This week's Federal Reserve meeting is highly anticipated, and I`m predicting that the market will go down following the announcement. The primary reason for this prediction is the expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates high for longer, with no rate cuts predicted for this year.
Based on fixed income futures, there is a 70% chance that the Fed will hike rates by 0.25-percentage-points, while only a 30% chance that they will hold rates steady. My prediction is that the Fed will indeed raise interest rates, which could lead to a market downturn as higher interest rates tend to slow down economic growth.
If the Fed's decision leads to higher interest rates that remain in place for an extended period, it could result in lower spending and investment by consumers and businesses, which could further exacerbate the market downturn. Therefore, many investors are closely monitoring any signals regarding future rate hikes or cuts and preparing for a potential dip in the market following the announcement.
According to the technical analysis chart, the SPY appears to be forming a bearish head and shoulders pattern, indicating a potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish. This pattern typically consists of three peaks, with the first and third peaks being of similar size and the middle peak being the highest.
Based on this pattern, my estimated price target for the SPY is 390.
Based on my analysis, I would buy the following PUTS ahead of Fed's decision: 2023-7-21 expiration date 390usd strike price $5.05 premium
I am interested to hear your thoughts on this strategy.
Trade active
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After the FOMC meeting SPY went lower and the 390usd strike price Puts expiring 2023-7-21 are today trading at $8.45 from 5.05, when I wrote this article. Up +65%.
So $ 390 will reach when , from now on only down to $390 ?????
TopgOptions
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@elenaec, thanks to the fact that we bought the Puts at the right time, it doesn`t matter if SPY will reach $390 or not. Made 65% and exited. I don`t hold options until de expiration date.
Like the analysis and trade idea, but why not buy closer to the money strikes so the 390 target can really work its magick?
TopgOptions
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@JabezDolz, because I think we are going to see a retracement this week and i want to leverage that by buying something out of the money. The target is also reasonable, in case I am wrong about the FED decision.