I managed to call yesterday morning's gap n' flush in my previous post... But looks like my shorting zone was off due to the additional day scheduled for trade talks. Things are looking up for bears though...
1) The 200DMA on the hourly (yellow line) and the top of the downward channel from December proved to be adequate resistance, producing what looks to be an Eve/Eve or "golden arches" formation at the daily top.
2) Bearish divergence can be seen on the 15min in volume, RSI, and MFI for this whole week. Stocks like DG, A, CMG, NFLX have gone practically vertical this wk on nothing but analyst pumps and algos...
3) AMZN, NFLX, GOOG stayed flat/red while the broader markets rallied.
4) News on trade and Fed minutes are over and done with, and the initial reaction feels bearish. After this farcical run-up, I think big money will be selling the news leading up to earnings. I feel like there will be many more snake in the grass forecasts similar to Apple/Samsung. That the market this week completely ignored guidance revisions in lieu of "optimism" on trade during this runup (esp w/ earnings on deck) also makes me extremely skeptical of this week's action so far.
What I'll be doing tomorrow:
1) Watching the 15min chart. It's been hovering above the 50DMA the entire week and I expect it to finally test it tomorrow and fail. On failure it will probably take a straight shot for the 200DMA which also coincides w/ trendline support in its current ascending channel.
2) If the current resistances hold, I'm adding to short positions on a rejection from the blue line on any attempts to rally.
3) It's gonna need a powerful move to break the 254 resistance and trendline support on the first go... my guess is that it will be some kind of H&S pattern as shown.
4) Should I be a genius and all this comes to fruition, PT is gap fill at $245 EOD on the 14th (which coincides w/ earnings season starting). I'm not greedy and think the xmas lows were a an anomaly backed by low volume trading. Not saying they won't get tested, just don't think it happens this month.
If nothing goes according to plan and the pump keeps going:
1) First off I really don't think it'll crack 260 on the first try... Maybe a retrace to 254 then tries again. But something tells me nobody wants to be left holding the bag when earnings start. If you're a NFLX shareholder are you gonna take ur 20% win from last week, or gamble on earnings next wk? Bull or bear, everybody agrees the market doesn't like uncertainty. We all know the answer here.
2) If it does somehow miraculously bust through 260, then 265 gap fill is where I'd look to add to my short position. The rally would be practically silly/ridiculous at this point, but hey then again so was the drop.
3) Will probably also add OTM puts around 235 for April/May if this charade continues... We're not gonna escape the xmas lows without a retest this spring.
cheers and trade sanely.
1) The 200DMA on the hourly (yellow line) and the top of the downward channel from December proved to be adequate resistance, producing what looks to be an Eve/Eve or "golden arches" formation at the daily top.
2) Bearish divergence can be seen on the 15min in volume, RSI, and MFI for this whole week. Stocks like DG, A, CMG, NFLX have gone practically vertical this wk on nothing but analyst pumps and algos...
3) AMZN, NFLX, GOOG stayed flat/red while the broader markets rallied.
4) News on trade and Fed minutes are over and done with, and the initial reaction feels bearish. After this farcical run-up, I think big money will be selling the news leading up to earnings. I feel like there will be many more snake in the grass forecasts similar to Apple/Samsung. That the market this week completely ignored guidance revisions in lieu of "optimism" on trade during this runup (esp w/ earnings on deck) also makes me extremely skeptical of this week's action so far.
What I'll be doing tomorrow:
1) Watching the 15min chart. It's been hovering above the 50DMA the entire week and I expect it to finally test it tomorrow and fail. On failure it will probably take a straight shot for the 200DMA which also coincides w/ trendline support in its current ascending channel.
2) If the current resistances hold, I'm adding to short positions on a rejection from the blue line on any attempts to rally.
3) It's gonna need a powerful move to break the 254 resistance and trendline support on the first go... my guess is that it will be some kind of H&S pattern as shown.
4) Should I be a genius and all this comes to fruition, PT is gap fill at $245 EOD on the 14th (which coincides w/ earnings season starting). I'm not greedy and think the xmas lows were a an anomaly backed by low volume trading. Not saying they won't get tested, just don't think it happens this month.
If nothing goes according to plan and the pump keeps going:
1) First off I really don't think it'll crack 260 on the first try... Maybe a retrace to 254 then tries again. But something tells me nobody wants to be left holding the bag when earnings start. If you're a NFLX shareholder are you gonna take ur 20% win from last week, or gamble on earnings next wk? Bull or bear, everybody agrees the market doesn't like uncertainty. We all know the answer here.
2) If it does somehow miraculously bust through 260, then 265 gap fill is where I'd look to add to my short position. The rally would be practically silly/ridiculous at this point, but hey then again so was the drop.
3) Will probably also add OTM puts around 235 for April/May if this charade continues... We're not gonna escape the xmas lows without a retest this spring.
cheers and trade sanely.