Friday was rough for Traders' offsides. I'm reluctant to even state the obvious at this point as it is self-evident. If you were on the incorrect side, feel for you as it was an insidious trap.
In conversations with Traders, the large majority were Buyers for Friday. My bias was lower and a Negative close as SPX buyers had positioned for the Kill.
The Falcon and the snowed-men, it happens, unfortunately, some must lose in order for others to win. Wall Street is very unforgiving at critical junctures, taking Retail's Capital.
Powell provided the color in 8 very direct minutes - to the point, no stammering, no wavering.
I had intimated the 2YY was providing some serious indications, the Dollar, even more, SPX positioning was downright nasty for the Sell and once again made Max Pain irrelevant. QT utterances would have been a total disaster, but Powell sidestepped the worsening case there.
More importantly, for months I've discussed the deteriorating Global Economy and Terminal Sentiment.
Fundamentals are quite often ignored as the Financial Media will pander to Multiple Expansions, Recessions out the Curve, Yield Curve inversions as "questionable events," Liquidity Dislocations... all of these are obvious indications - and yet they are muted via Financial Media's messed up message track.
It did suck to watch frankly - Cronyism at work and play. Again, if you were beaten, my condolences.
After another very odd 5 Wave move into the Highs at Resistance, Once again lower Resistance was run only to see the Sell begin a very large decline, exceeding 4% on the NQ an event which 18/18 times has led to Lower Lows.
Lower Lows are indeed ahead.
A continuation of the powerful Sell is now assured, how it unfolds will be quite telling.
The rising Lower Trend will be an important test.
I am, however anticipating another 8 to 11% Downside, perhaps far more. It is too early to make that determination as we need a great deal more information.
Let's see if Black Monday we've indicated - arrives.
@jdouglas020, Buyers want to see the Lower trendline hold, observe the reaction at 400, snap it without defense... further continuation to 3xx's
jdouglas020
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@HK_L61, yes I agree with your chart and have on of my own that matches your conclusions
Rumpelstiltskin_
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Your insights are quite astute. You've intimated in prior posts that your intimately familiar with the dealings of the fed. A perspective that's freely shared for followers. I always look forward to your posts. Thank you.
I've been scaling into big tech puts out until October, which are already in the money. I still hold volatility, I'll be happy to get par.
@Ahmed_M_Soliman, You are welcome Ahmed, have a relaxing weekend amigo ;)
wolffarchitecture
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Agree with the bulk, NOTE: agricultural commodities and energy (particularly green energy) have been largely untouched by this headwind. they may cave sum in the next few weeks but they are looking stronger. As far as the media goes they do there jobs perfectly in sink with the manufactured content given to them by there masters. I'm so bored with people complaining about the media. Who do you think they are ? do you think they work for you ? As Bidden would say "come on man, really ?. Powell does his duty to the market managers, the same way general Powell lied about weapons' of mass distructuction. They are soldiers doing and saying what they are ordered to do. And yes I'm sure the market managers have an already tried an true (fully back-tested) AI code for the pre-market , start of speech, middle speech end of speech wave pattern which would collect $ from bears shorting and trap and bulls. fortunately I took off my short stop (and am still hold short). but that was dumb luck I'm sure i could have fallen pre like so many. Zoltan Pozsar predicted the FED would stop forward guidance 6 months ago. Manufacturing losses in the market through volatility is a proven and well documented strategy to lower inflation and the most politically safe as well.
HK_L61
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@wolffarchitecture, Financial Media did their job perfectly as I noted a few in a prior post - they are to be faded.
Congrats on your Sell - hang tough there, it's far from over.
TY & Good Luck.
wolffarchitecture
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@HK_L61, You too man appreciate your posts: I'm sure you have noticed the big market mangers have stepped aside (making money on their green back longs) and are letting retail take all the punches in equities.