I've made some money from the second wave off of late March's bottom, but I've had butterflies. I took some profits and spent some time reading the wind, and the last 2 weeks have been a major retest of the indexes as they were rangebound for a short term. Now that the S&P and others have broken out, it's risk on again for yours truly. I'm personally look at AMZN (they report tomorrow) as the canary in the coal mine if this V-shaped bounce off the March 23 bottom isn't just a very hard bouncing cat, but I think even Schrodinger would have a hard time telling if this kitty was alive or dead. You decide that for yourself.
The price has broken above the 50 day average and is beginning a retest of the 200 and 252 days avgs (I like the 252, it's the avg of the trailing twelve months) is narrowing some, but that's natural after the first successful retest of a baby bull. This first dip stayed below a threshold of 5%, so didn't even touch the lightest of hand's stop loss. Long term stochastics show it moving into an established movement, and we're likely to run until a retest at 3150 which would be the peak of the February 2020 bull trap. I plan to take profits near that zone depending as we approach the apex of the where we could have a pullback anywhere from another 5% all the way to 15% or more. shows we're not yet overbought (it's still early in the up trend for that anyway), but keep your eyes peeled and be ready to act quickly on fast, large moving changes in the coming couple of weeks.
Any shocks or melt ups will likely be news driven, and the larger they are, the hard they are likely to snap back toward the center of the new trend channel with some momentum.
I'm not comfortable saying that the baby bull is dead, but it sure looks like veal to me.