SPY sold off sharply since the beginning of the year, reaching a new YTD low at 181.02 (January 20, 2016) near the 181.92/182.40 15-month range (October 15, 2014/August 24, 2015 reaction lows) before bouncing. Near term, the 191.70 resistance (38.2% of the 208.48/181.02 fall) may cap the bounce. Above there lies the 194.93 resistance (50% of the 208.48/181.02 fall). Back below 188.87 (January 21, 2016 low) would resume weakness towards 181.02 for a retest. A clean breakdown below the 181.02 level is needed to confirm a 15-month range top formation under 213.78 (May 25, 2015 peak) and risk further downside towards early 2014 levels.
However, an upside through the 194.86 area would suggest further consolidation within the 15-month range.