The price action we've seen since October looks a lot like the tech bubble of Y2K. The economy was just a tad more organic back in Y2K so our price action may not have as much drama. Using the first tech bubble as a model, the graph shows what will most likely happen. IF plays out in the same fashion then we have to wait till February before this 'algo driven market' snaps under its own weight. Hey, its an idea. We'll see.
Comment: Monday, Feb 4, 2019 is a Micro New Moon. Any affect on SP 500? Do we have a replay of Oct 2000 -> March 2001? We'll see.
Comment: Italy is now officially in recession. Germany is soon to be in recession. We'll know for sure on Valentines Day.
Japan had 2 quarters of negative GDP in 2018 but not consecutive.
Comment: We just have to get past that right shoulder and we'll be off to the races.
Comment: Having broken the 200 DMA, it looks like the bulls are aiming for the last topper before the drop on December 3rd. Next level up would be 278-279 range. That's about 1.3% from here. This should be our pivot point. Left shoulder in view with a head forming.
Comment: Progress is slowing to a snails pace on the rally front. Tomorrow we get the FOMC meeting minutes. We may actually get to 279 by 2pm EST.
Comment: We've finally tapped 279. We've tapped this level 3 times since the drop in October. All three have failed. Given the bullishness(higher now than it was in October), I think we'll grind up towards 281-282 before a capitulation by this time next week. We'll see.
Comment: Now begins the flatline of daily grinding within a 2 % range... before the drop. There is only one piece of news that is left that the market rallies on while ignoring all else.... US-China trade talks. The elephant in the room is that China is already in full on recession. Trade talks are something of a mute point. Is the market euphoric or has it just stepped into the biggest bull trap of all time. I'd say a lot of both.
Comment: Check out the nasdaq sentiment meter. It's coming off an all time high. Judging by the previous peaks its going to come down fast.
Comment: The TRIN chart is looking grim. Note the graph is inverted so positive is down. On Short Term chart, March of 2019 looks like November'18(with possible Dec. bounce before the plunge). Looking at the intermediate, the last 4 times its been at this magnitude (1.25) and direction(headed down on graph) was in mid-December, mid-November(dead cat bounce),mid-October, March into April, and February of last year. Being that all these were down months does not bode well for the month of March 2019. I'm convinced that stock buy backs and portfolio alignment played a MAJOR role in propping up February to keep this bear rally alive.

Now come the downgrades in YoY earnings for 1st quarter 2019 earnings. The "trade agreement rallies" will end as you cannot ignore immediate earnings degradation and outlook. The blinders will come off. The market will drop.
All that being said, we'll see a BTD Monday, possibly into Wednesday before the reality kicks in. Thursday-Friday will see the drop.
Rebounded me huh? ;)
not-abot TheHumbleWatcher
@TheHumbleWatcher, I study you're posts(analysis, 'possible catalysts' and key 'what to look fors' in EW) hourly on SPY, GLD and cryptos. Its the best IMHO. Thank You Very Much!

RE Rebound: What you have is real, expert analysis and what I have is a cookie cutter(scaling) idea. The difference is like being on the court versus watching from the stands. No way I can rebound from the stands, not by a long shot.

I agree with your analysis 110%. You're the best EW analyst IMHO. The drop on SPY was long overdue last week and it was frustrating me how the market could persist on a bear rally for so long. So I went looking at previous crashes(like most people do) to see if this was unprecedented. I found something odd about the Y2K crash. The 12/20/2000 price drop looked just like our drop on the 24th and all the wave action leading up to it. The price movements/waves looked eerily similar(going back to October,2000) compared to now. Looking forward from 12/20/2000, the oversold bear rally in January that followed jumped up quickly and then made a steady tapered slow climb over the next 6 weeks till February,2001(Y21K). So I'm simply scaling what happened then onto what is going on now(ledge building) out into February, 6 weeks from the 24th. I then pivoting at 268(maybe too high) and scaled the Feb-Mar Y21K drop from that pivot point. The drop at the beginning of February 2001 lasted a total of 9 weeks where I'm only including 7 weeks to March 25th,2019. The last 2 weeks were an oversold dead cat bounce that came back down to a slightly lowered bottom.

Nothing goes in a straight line like I've shown it. As well, my numbers and timing will be off(and probably flat wrong from a EW standpoint). I do mention two of your numbers(233 and 226) in my commentary notes so those will be correct and I meant to credit you. As well, EW dictates that nothing will repeat itself,exactly. Yet, a similar setup, with similar market drivers can have similar price results/action so there is hope that we have a template of the 1st Qtr, 2019 to explain some of this irrational, algorithm, complacency, bullishness. We'll see.

So what's going to make it drop? Here are my catalysts of choice for the near-term:
Oil Glut. One oil glut report hitting the news could tip the scales on oil pricing(and SPY).
Earning Reports. Earnings beats are no longer a safe haven whereas forward guidance is paramount. An avalanche of less that 'bright and cheery' forward guidance in any sector could tip the scales(and SPY with it).
The psychological standby=> 10/2 yield curve inversion coming to a Federal Reserve near you.
I liked DaddySawBucks lunar correlation and the upcoming blood moon.
The catalyst ...nobody knows about because it will make its debut for this crisis?? Perhaps another 'fallen angel zombie company' ... GE was the first, who will be next, maybe someone in the financial sector?

Until the drop, buy gold my friend, I've read its in a 34 day cycle correction.
not-abot TheHumbleWatcher
@TheHumbleWatcher, Sorry, just realized what a rebound is here on tradingview. Got on your page and saw I have a Rebounded link there. I thought it would put a link on my page and it does but didn't realize it would directly affect your page. That was not the intention. My bad as I'm sure this is a classic newby mistake. I was simply trying to give credit where it is due, no more.

In addition, with this free account, I am limited on commenting on other peoples pages. It allowed me a couple of comments and then cut me off. So I could no longer comment on your page else I'd simply have floated this idea about Oct-Mar2001 on your page directly(to try to explain why we are still waiting on a drop). In that way everyone on your page would have benefited directly. The only way I can comment at this point is to get my reputation score up from 0 to above 13 so I'm forced to publish my own ideas instead of enhancing/commenting others publications and/or collaborating(where I can). That is probably a good thing I guess but at this point I still cannot comment elsewhere ...yet. In the mean time, I am a mute point, haha.
I have similar thoughts, but I could see this getting into the low 270s. 272 is my target where the 100 x 200 crossed down on the 1 Day.
not-abot pumpkinparty000
@pumpkinparty000, Good point and 272 also coincides with the first bounce back on October 11. The reason I chose 268 is because there was an initial hip(support line/resistance) coming off the last high(December 3rd). It occurred at 269.8 on Dec. 6th before dropping further. I chose 268 because I figured while bulls might push through the major hip that occurred a Dec.13 at 265, they would meet stiff resistance at 269.8. However, seeing what the bulls have done so far, you may very well be proven correct my friend. They blew right through in one day where I thought it would take longer than that. So long as 'nothing major' hits the news, this crazy market may just keep on going t 272. We'll see.
not-abot not-abot
@not-abot, Looks like it bounced off 270.29 today. Hopefully that is a top(and not another stepping stone to higher support). We'll see.
not-abot pumpkinparty000
@pumpkinparty000, It tapped 270 today and its hovering just under it so you may get a 272 tomorrow. Good Call! I'm hoping its topping out as this bull market is on a roll.
@not-abot, Yea i'm keeping an eye on this, but I think im gonna start buying some puts in this area. Feel pretty safe buying long term spy puts in the 270's. Basically at my original target... I think tomorrow will be the day...
not-abot pumpkinparty000
@pumpkinparty000, I'm shooting for Monday or possibly Tuesday since the 2001 crash did its Christmas drop on Dec 22nd and the February drop was on the 1st. Ours was the Dec24th and so there is 2 days I'm factoring in for a drop on 4 or 5th. I know, I should be trying to 'cookie cut' the last crash onto today's in such and exact manner but so's been playing out extremely close since October for then and now. Today looks like a 'run-on engine' that's running out of gas so you may get your wish. I hope so. The sooner the better for me as I've invested 2 mutual funds shorting SPX and QQQ and have been suffering a thousand cuts for a couple of weeks waiting on this pesky market to capitulate. Been tempted 2x to get out but still holding the line...
@not-abot, playing out pretty close to what I expected. :) lets see how tomorrow and next week plays out though.
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