Japan had 2 quarters of negative GDP in 2018 but not consecutive.
Now come the downgrades in YoY earnings for 1st quarter 2019 earnings. The "trade agreement rallies" will end as you cannot ignore immediate earnings degradation and outlook. The blinders will come off. The market will drop.
All that being said, we'll see a BTD Monday, possibly into Wednesday before the reality kicks in. Thursday-Friday will see the drop.
RE Rebound: What you have is real, expert analysis and what I have is a cookie cutter(scaling) idea. The difference is like being on the court versus watching from the stands. No way I can rebound from the stands, not by a long shot.
I agree with your analysis 110%. You're the best EW analyst IMHO. The drop on SPY was long overdue last week and it was frustrating me how the market could persist on a bear rally for so long. So I went looking at previous crashes(like most people do) to see if this was unprecedented. I found something odd about the Y2K crash. The 12/20/2000 price drop looked just like our drop on the 24th and all the wave action leading up to it. The price movements/waves looked eerily similar(going back to October,2000) compared to now. Looking forward from 12/20/2000, the oversold bear rally in January that followed jumped up quickly and then made a steady tapered slow climb over the next 6 weeks till February,2001(Y21K). So I'm simply scaling what happened then onto what is going on now(ledge building) out into February, 6 weeks from the 24th. I then pivoting at 268(maybe too high) and scaled the Feb-Mar Y21K drop from that pivot point. The drop at the beginning of February 2001 lasted a total of 9 weeks where I'm only including 7 weeks to March 25th,2019. The last 2 weeks were an oversold dead cat bounce that came back down to a slightly lowered bottom.
Nothing goes in a straight line like I've shown it. As well, my numbers and timing will be off(and probably flat wrong from a EW standpoint). I do mention two of your numbers(233 and 226) in my commentary notes so those will be correct and I meant to credit you. As well, EW dictates that nothing will repeat itself,exactly. Yet, a similar setup, with similar market drivers can have similar price results/action so there is hope that we have a template of the 1st Qtr, 2019 to explain some of this irrational, algorithm, complacency, bullishness. We'll see.
So what's going to make it drop? Here are my catalysts of choice for the near-term:
Oil Glut. One oil glut report hitting the news could tip the scales on oil pricing(and SPY).
Earning Reports. Earnings beats are no longer a safe haven whereas forward guidance is paramount. An avalanche of less that 'bright and cheery' forward guidance in any sector could tip the scales(and SPY with it).
The psychological standby=> 10/2 yield curve inversion coming to a Federal Reserve near you.
I liked DaddySawBucks lunar correlation and the upcoming blood moon.
The catalyst ...nobody knows about because it will make its debut for this crisis?? Perhaps another 'fallen angel zombie company' ... GE was the first, who will be next, maybe someone in the financial sector?
Until the drop, buy gold my friend, I've read its in a 34 day cycle correction.
In addition, with this free account, I am limited on commenting on other peoples pages. It allowed me a couple of comments and then cut me off. So I could no longer comment on your page else I'd simply have floated this idea about Oct-Mar2001 on your page directly(to try to explain why we are still waiting on a drop). In that way everyone on your page would have benefited directly. The only way I can comment at this point is to get my reputation score up from 0 to above 13 so I'm forced to publish my own ideas instead of enhancing/commenting others publications and/or collaborating(where I can). That is probably a good thing I guess but at this point I still cannot comment elsewhere ...yet. In the mean time, I am a mute point, haha.