alecphant

SPY 300

Long
alecphant Updated   
AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Hi, I spy, with my little eye, that this little guy, will be 300 by the End.....of.......this week

Happy trading


TLDR: don't buy fucking puts against Jpow
Don't buy puts against bezos
Don't buy puts against musk
4 things that affect the economy, i teach this everytime i do a class

1 is the weakest 4 is the strongest

1. Consensus among the population with using fundamentals and Psychology.

We have the normal investors who think oh yeah the economy is down blah blah blah. Then we have institutional investors who are market movers. Remember, 90% of traders lose money.
NETFLIX EARNIGNS ARE GONNA BE SO GOOD. ceo of netflix sells his 600k shares at earnings. boom crash at earnings
SNAPCHAT EARNINGS ARE GONNA BE SO BAD. boom explosion at earnings
GAS PRICES ARE AT LOW. THEY ARE GONNA GO UP. boom negative. always see the inverse of every conversation. dont be one sided or biased. 90% of traders think one way, the person thinking the other is going to make the money. the person that makes the money always makes the move first

2. The News. Headlines say 22m unemployed, best dow week since 1938. Doesnt affect it negatively since its PRICED IN. Now, what does that mean about good news? Good news will pump it like crazy if there is a vaccine (for pharm stocks)

3. Donald Trump's Tweets. Anything he tweets, he brings attention to.

4. The federal government's actions. Stimulus package, 600 billion initially, 2 trillion upcoming, Unlimited Quantitative Easing till reopening. Everyone is getting a good amount of money. Unemployment benefits are through the fucking roof.
Monthly stimulus package everytime they reassess give a monthly stimulus bill. Student loans don't have to be paid and mortgages can be deferred

You also have to realize every country is printing. Not just America. If every country is printing, its a wash(if you don't know what this means look it up :))

I literally don't care about small businesses. They are not what defines the stock market. What drives the market are investors and fortune 500s. If they are on the market, they are probably just penny stocks

My point is, you can't rely on pure fundamentals in this game. It's a combination of macroeconomics and microeconomics

Economy analysis:

30M PEOPLE UNEMPLOYED: doesnt matter. As I got laid off, I'm getting $5,200 a month from unemployment benefits with the $1,200 a month on top of that from Trump Bucks. What does this mean? That means that for every unemployed couple in america right now, they have the ability to earn $10,000 a month without lifting a single finger. We have three types of people, the ones that invest a portion of it, the ones that just keep it in savings, and the ones that spend it all in one day.

2. Extra income means they have the ability to do things they wouldn't normally do, which is invest.

3. High demand for the drop pushed prices higher.

4. Casinos are closed, so we have big time gamblers only playing one thing, the stock market.

5. We in our lives have never had the market affected by

6. Certain industries will see growth, certain industries will see stagnation. Everyone is stay at home, which industries will prosper? analyze it yourself. Its basically a rearranging of all the wealth

7. There's no where to hide your money. It doesn't matter if you ship it overseas, the whole world is affected by corona. All nations are doing government supplementation.

8. There could be a massive selloff again, there may not. We have never faced an economy where so much government help was introduced.

9. They are going to add more to the stimulus. If it passes(it will pass), I literally make a 100k salary without lifting a single finger. They are doing this to increase consumer spending (amazon with the ath I see you) Amazing

Comment:
Its going to $300. Switch to puts at week's end.
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