Targets: 6.7% P vs 1.6% L with an initial P/L ratio of 2.0; revisit at 188.67 and 190 levels to cover.
Reasoning
SENTIMENT: Positive talks (Goldman Sachs statement, Oil talks between countries) shifted sentiment and EU markets (STOXX 600 up ~2.5% at the moment) are backing a sentiment shift stocktwits.com/feczo/message/49480530 OIL futures are up 2% as I write this. I would also consider the TGF: ie the The Grandma Factor, when everybody even your grandma starts to talk about how bad the market is and sell sell sell, but it has been like this for a while it is probably time to go against the herd mentality.
FUNDAMENTALS (with a grain of salt) I have no good take on this at the moment, ultimately nothing is much more broken than it always was, it is risky CDS rises in bonds for example but it is doable to get through these times without folding. We have seen a great price correction in QQQ and XLF. I can only talk for tech from memory but apart from LNKD I do not remember huge disappointment, GOOG, FB, AAPL delivered. OIL and commodities like DJP were also taking the beating for the past few weeks on oversupply concerns, but supply/demand meets at some point.
TECHNICALS (disclaimer I was not active for a few months, maybe few things are off :) Well honestly this is a sideways indecision/consolidation after heavy volume selling, its trading the approx. 185 - 195 horizontal channel with big nervous swings. However notice the volume and money flow, the selling pressure eased significantly while the swings towards the bottom are the same: divergence. Pure price action might provide the bears confidence, but I would be more and more cautious to go short here, not a great Risk/Reward either also its clearly hovering on resistance that held at least three times in the past few weeks. It is possible that the 190 area provides significant resistance the Ichimoku Cloud is also warning about this. If that happens it can continue sideways for a while or even break for the downside depending on the changes in the above two other major drivers (fundamentals, sentiment)
Comments
SubZero
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Recap: So I got a fill yesterday at my entry point but the intraday price action did not look reassuring. Having said that the hourly OBV still shows an upward motion up till the last two hours, when day-traders were clearly jumping ship not being confident to hold overnight. Its funny how the first and last hours of the day are so telling. You can not win all trades and since I did not hit SL nor PT I kept the position.
Premarket update: massive sentiment shift towards the downside, FED/Yellen statements were clearly not reassuring not even for me + all sorts of news about GLD to appreciate. STOXX 600 -3.08% ASX200 +0.95% S&P futures -2.08% already pointing below support/and my stop in the low 180s CL1! is also down -3% wow where is OIL going
Premarket update: massive sentiment shift towards the downside, FED/Yellen statements were clearly not reassuring not even for me + all sorts of news about GLD to appreciate. STOXX 600 -3.08% ASX200 +0.95% S&P futures -2.08% already pointing below support/and my stop in the low 180s CL1! is also down -3% wow where is OIL going