goodguy

SPY Weekly: Why I think we are at risk of trend change

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
spy
33 2 1
spy
This is a follow up to Mondays post on the SPY             . I changed the style to a line of the weekly close. You can see that with Fridays down day the SPY             did close below the rising trend line. Of course just because a trend line is broken it does not mean necessarily the trend will reverse. It could continue to go up at a different rate or go side ways. On the longer tern chart on the left I see the last 4 times there was a fairly long up trend line break (including this current break). At points 1 and 2, when the drop was the greatest, the RSI was less than 65 with a bearish divergence when the line break occurred. At 3 the RSI was greater than 65. It wasn't until a little later when there was a turn down with the RSI <65 that there was a rapid drop. Currently we have a bearish divergence with the RSI less than 60. The next element of a trend change is that the previous low (horizontal dashed line @ 205.74)) needs to be taken out. Also with the horizontal arrows: timing seems to be ripe for a drop. Have a great weekend.
goodguy PRO
2 years ago
snapshot
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goodguy PRO
2 years ago
Sorry the second chart did not post.
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