merkd1904

I'm just going to leave this here

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST

As I prep for my daily videos sometimes I come across patterns that give me pause. Like the recent diamond top we had in the oil markets (/ CL ). Or the H&S that yeeted BTC to its current churn of hell.

And although this is minor in the grand scheme, it still holds an inextricable link to our next few weeks of price action.

Currently printing is a minor diamond top in SPY / SPX . The right hand portion of the diamond and its subsequent symmetrical triangle apex at exactly 09:30, 07/30.

If you do not follow my analysis I currently have a running thesis built that in short is calling for a 10-15% correction, starting this week, led by NDX. With SPX's cycle turning... on 07/30.

The implied move for the minor diamond top is 1.19% or just over $5. This is all in the backdrop of SPY , SPX , and ES printing a much larger, more ominous and looming broadening top/megaphone/diamond top.



With implied moves of of around 162 points in the index and 192 in futures , or 3.6 and 4.2 percent respectfully.

Now I am wholly and tragically aware of what it costs to be bearish this market. But never in my relatively short trading career have so many things lined up for this call.

Now taking this a step further, and getting into the realm of less probable but possible, we are now threatening what island reversal as well as a minor diamond top in SPY and SPX . If at any time in this structure we gap down below $435.95 and do not come back in to fill the gap, you have two powerful bearish patterns in conjunction with one another in what could be a massive topping pattern. Heads on a swivel.

Feel free to check out my previous work. And for a full accounting of my thesis feel free to find me elsewhere on the internet or shoot me a message here.
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Comments

Excellent analysis as always, and I agree 100%. This market is the Hindenburg waiting to happen. Jackson Hole maybe? Keep up the great work, my friend!
+1 Reply
merkd1904 Hedge_Of_The_World
@Hedge_Of_The_World the problem is everyone will be looking the same direction (expecting it) at Jackson Hole. My bet would be shortly before or after there’ll be some one off catalyst that sets off the broader chain of events.
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