SPY Cycle Patterns For Nov 14~20, 2022 - Rally Week Continues
The incredible rally last week as traders flooded into US & Foreign market assets. The US Dollar rolled downward. Cryptos blew up and continued to tank.
Traders are assuming inflation data will continue to trend downward and are viewing many foreign assets as "undervalued".
You have to attempt to understand the psychology of the markets/humans and the seasonal cycles at play. On top of all of that, we have to consider the fact that the US economy is still much stronger than almost all other foreign economies right now.
As I keep saying, this is a Foreign Market Crisis (credit/debt related to the 2008-09 GFC crisis) and the low-interest US Fed Policy. Easy money policies created a massive speculative bubble phase throughout much of the rest of the world.
The global economy was rolling. Real Estate prices rose - causing a perceived wealth growth that was heavily leveraged. This creates a massive deflationary/revaluation process to unwind in the near future. We have not seen the end of the unwinding, but we have seen the foreign markets move far enough downward to attempt to begin to form a base.
The US markets, with the current CPI data showing weakening inflation and US Real Estate data showing a strong collapse in demand/sales, will likely attempt to MELT UPWARD over the next 90+ days.
But I still want to warn everyone we do NOT have any confirmed uptrend using my MRM Rotational Modeling system Bullish Trend Trigger on the Daily chart. This means, no matter how much we want to chase this rally phase, we should only be deploying a very small amount of capital into any trading activity. RISKS are still very high right now.
If the MRM system changes to bullish on the Daily chart, then I will address allocation levels and the potential volatility risks.
11-13: Bottom
11-14: N/A
11-15: N/A
11-16: InsideBreakaway
11-17: BreakAway
11-18: WeekendGap/Flat
11-19: Gap Up-Higher
11-20: Consolidation
11-21: CRUSH
Looks like we are going to have a fairly good week with higher trending.
Traders are assuming inflation data will continue to trend downward and are viewing many foreign assets as "undervalued".
You have to attempt to understand the psychology of the markets/humans and the seasonal cycles at play. On top of all of that, we have to consider the fact that the US economy is still much stronger than almost all other foreign economies right now.
As I keep saying, this is a Foreign Market Crisis (credit/debt related to the 2008-09 GFC crisis) and the low-interest US Fed Policy. Easy money policies created a massive speculative bubble phase throughout much of the rest of the world.
The global economy was rolling. Real Estate prices rose - causing a perceived wealth growth that was heavily leveraged. This creates a massive deflationary/revaluation process to unwind in the near future. We have not seen the end of the unwinding, but we have seen the foreign markets move far enough downward to attempt to begin to form a base.
The US markets, with the current CPI data showing weakening inflation and US Real Estate data showing a strong collapse in demand/sales, will likely attempt to MELT UPWARD over the next 90+ days.
But I still want to warn everyone we do NOT have any confirmed uptrend using my MRM Rotational Modeling system Bullish Trend Trigger on the Daily chart. This means, no matter how much we want to chase this rally phase, we should only be deploying a very small amount of capital into any trading activity. RISKS are still very high right now.
If the MRM system changes to bullish on the Daily chart, then I will address allocation levels and the potential volatility risks.
11-13: Bottom
11-14: N/A
11-15: N/A
11-16: InsideBreakaway
11-17: BreakAway
11-18: WeekendGap/Flat
11-19: Gap Up-Higher
11-20: Consolidation
11-21: CRUSH
Looks like we are going to have a fairly good week with higher trending.
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www.tradetank.com
Follow me on Twitter, Youtube, TradingView, Others
www.youtube.com/channel/UCjjblvO7QRPKx2GcrVcoSgQ
twitter.com/BradMatheny33