I posted a bullish trajectory for SPY back on 10/21/2022 (linked: "Bulls Ready to Take It") - that hit the exact trajectory up to this point. The idea left off indicating that was the setup pre-breakout; this is a follow up from that with the expected path from here.
There has been major accumulation since June 2022, with 3 minor accumulation zones (hollow green boxes) at the left shoulder, head/spring, and right shoulder. From these I can calculate equilibrium levels (dashed horizontal lines) and critical markup/activation levels (yellow dotted lines). The black and purple trend lines are supply/demand, and the dashed blue are gann angles. The horizontal green are target levels.
The final backup/retest level is SPY 387.58 - given that holds today I am expecting the path toward breakout to begin in the coming weeks:
- Breakout Level is 401.42, a break of that will see explosive upside to initial target of 432-437 by end of March 2023 (this will be the SoS) - Following that will be the backup/retest to 401.42 by July 2023 (will likely see re-accumulation here) - Given that holds as support the next target will be the markup to new All Time High by early-to-mid 2024. On the way to ATH expect 464, then re-accumulation to make the new high (after July the trajectory becomes illustrative to show the idea, up until July its literal). - The end goal is SPY 530-550 but I'll send update when we are closer to that, first need to hold here and see strength to 430s in coming months.
~JM
Comment
⋅
Hit the 387.58 exactly on the test, its about to run.
If the 387.58 fails, next support 383.63 (unlikely)
Invalidated with sustained break below 373.93 (unlikely)
Comment
⋅
Bulls in motion. Follow this idea.
Comment
⋅
Conjunction of Venus and Saturn tonight = Bullish af if you believe in Gann
Comment
⋅
Case yall didnt notice this is 23 year of the bulls #Jordan
#Watch them Bulls in transition.
Comment
⋅
Add, keep in mind on these relatively weak pullback that market is setting up for the biggest upside move in over a year - volatility to be expected until we close above 401.42.
Comment
⋅
We broke out today, kill confirmed. GN bears.
Comment
⋅
Watchout bears theyre about to REPO your puts
Comment
⋅
Time to Rip, next stop 412-416
Comment
⋅
Likely to see some distribution here from 416-418. Could hit 420, however, I am selling calls. The 430s target will still be in play, but could see a drop to 390-400 as part of a smaller degree corrective wave. There could be support at 401 and 404 on the way down but the 0.618 is low 390s. After that it will continue back up along the green trajectory in chart.
Comment
⋅
Expecting move to 430s to begin tomorrow with cpi. 430s by end of Feb.
I feel like you should also take into consideration the Feds and how quantitative tightening is going to continue for at minimum another 6 months so wouldn't that push our economy lower. I think the next bull run will happen somewhere in 2023, not just yet.
JerryManders
⋅
@BiggWigg, my view is that any news/events (e.g. FED) is just noise. The only thing that matters in driving price action is supply/demand, which is baked into the chart. The only thing needed for making forecasts like this is the chart itself, ignore the news.
Andywonger
⋅
Hey Jerry maybe this trajectory is more accurate than the recent SPY posts?
churl2
⋅
Big money, smart money, slowing moving in, FOMO/dumb money is running out of the market. Looking for a little bounce to cover some of those gaps left behind (401, 407, 412) and then .... another dive, perhaps deeper? Tech is going to be a roller coaster ride in the coming months. currently, bond traders and rates are telling a tale much like that of 2022. Kangaroo market it is--hold on........ Market seasonality (history) does show some positive trends for early March. Could there be a bigger (short-lived) bull run??
JerryManders
⋅
@churl2, I think all of March will be a rally to SPY 430s and QQQ 320s, then pullback in April
churl2
⋅
@JerryManders, Brother, would like you to be correct... You've had some good calls recently. I hope we can get over 412 but, it isnt going to be easy with fundamentals/FED going to be more hawkish. QQQs are ripe for volatility over the coming months. Let's see what shakes out
gvoommen
⋅
The best analysis!
SickAssFoo
⋅
$389 LONG CALL HERE WE GO BABY BOUGHT A PREMIUM AT@$ 2.95 closing market it was $7 on fri