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SLOPolarBear
Oct 12, 2020 7:40 PM

SPY - Are we having fun yet?/Swing LOW Short

SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUSTArca

Description

That was a fun day. I suspect the market will pop up green tomorrow AM and re-test previous ATH's before jackknifing. Major support/resistance levels from 2-day chart (helps eliminate a lot of the noise). Short @ $357. First target, $335.

Comment

Note the OBV/price action divergence on the daily chart (not pictured). Price action is head to head with previous all time highs, while on-balance volume is currently grinding away at levels where price action previously tackled $334-337. Market is overextended to that price at least.

Comment

2-day RSI hasn't peaked yet. Expecting to see a rebound tomorrow and final retest of highs before a more significant sell off. Momentum (RSI) is holding up well across longer time frames. Look for price action to make a move up Thursday (10/15) and Friday (10/16). There's a 'handle' formation brewing on the 30 minute charts. Once we break outside of that, expect a strong bullish candle running up to $361 to test resistance levels for yearly trend (parabolic). A strong sell-off candle will tear thru all of the price points we've negotiated over the past 2 trading days leaving the next line of resistance somewhere in the neighborhood of $345. Not ready to short this beast yet, but the framework is building up for a quick fall.
Comments
fah29399
Thanks, I came up with a similar chart pattern based on the last big drop between September 2018 to June 2019. The pattern is somewhat the same, with minor changes. I expect it to drop to a $316.45 - $324.94 target between now and end of November, then it will only go up from there unless we have another crash.
SLOPolarBear
@fah29399, The S&P looks a lot more like a tech stock than a broad market index (FANG effect) these past couple years. Just about everyone's price target is right at least two times or more given the volatility. I'm guilty of opening positions late and closing them early! Cheers.
SunnyHillCapital
Expecting a correction to occur, let's see. Thanks for sharing!
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