SPY broke and closed below the 460 support first on 26 November, then gapped up but couldn't sustain the upward movement, broke it again on 30 November and then finally broke it decisively on 1 December 1-2 hours before closing and then went on to test 449-450.
Then it retested 460 and got rejected, retested & rejected the 448-450 region again yesterday and went up in the final hour of the day. Both of these rejections occurred on similar volumes.
Based on the last couple of days, there is a high chance that it will retest the 458-460 region and if it is not able to break the resistance on high volume, we will it it testing and most probably breaking the 4480-450 region.
So, Monday seems like a green day but after that, however, Tuesday and Wednesday would be the days to look out for.
--- This is not a financial advice. The author isn't liable for any gains or losses made when any trade is based on this idea.
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the last candle hourly barely broke 460 but the volume was low. Now we need to see if bulls can push it above 460 and if the volume comes into play. This next candle would give us an idea but we also need to keep the bigger timeframes in mind.
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At one point it seemed that bulls took control (the two green candles on the left of the three red candles), however, there was a tug of war in the 460-461 range but bears were finally able to bring it down to 458-459.
If we consider the price action of the last week, it might retest the 450-452 again or it might give another try to break the 460.
I think the first few hours of tomorrow will tell. However, it seems like a red day to me (but I think still not a good idea to open puts yet)
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460 is breached in the premarket. I think the scenario is invalid, however, I will still wait for the market to open for confirmation.
Spot on.. I think tech will push it there, also Chart some of the Bank stocks on the 1hr and you'll see they've found temporary support . if XLF and XLK pop we could head back to 459🤙
alwaysinlearningmode
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@ContraryTrader, Thank you for having a look. I would definitely check them out :)
kkandru
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I See this as your first chart, but well explained. Can you also look at NYMO to see if the reading supports this case?
alwaysinlearningmode
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@kkandru, I haven't used NYMO before but I would definitely have a look and respond within a few hours.
bdbandit
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What if the peak of september 451-453 is now a demand zone right now?
alwaysinlearningmode
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@bdbandit, I think 436-440 (if you look at the 4h chart and also a bit supported by the daily chart) or 418-422 (if you look at the daily chart). These areas have been tested and rejected/broken over a longer period of time than the 451-453 (or 448-450).
alwaysinlearningmode
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@bdbandit, I think you were right about the 451-453 being the demand zone.