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hungry_hippo
Jan 17, 2019 7:13 PM

SPY More Wedgies Long

SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUSTArca

Description

More wedgies as the market is still moving up. Yesterday's doji appears to be a headfake, we may see another dip before breaking through this next resistance. At this point, it;s safe to say that the market will continue to melt up for a few more days.

Financials leading the way (which is very bullish) buying GS calls on the dip was the obvious day trade.

Comment

... and we just broke through already. Wow. GS running up, not sure what my exit plan is, Feb calls....

Comment

Be careful about shorting what appears to be a reversal. It's forming a pennant here at the end of the day, and futures may gap it up tomorrow.

Imagine if you lived in China or Europe and your market gapped up big, which direction would you take it? Well, all futures move in the same direction.

Comment

Futures already broke upward out of the pennant and retesting the day's high. Let's see if the European markets tank futures like the last breakout. If European markets break out then next week will be huge just from futures getting pumped overnight

Comment

Futures stalled out and flat, at this point I think tomorrow will be a flat day, maybe a small gap up and and another head fake doji for a bear trap.

Comment

As I suspected yesterday afternoon, Euro and Asian markets up big. Looks like a breakout, may decide to go long on foreign markets instead of playing with SPY....

Just be mindful of currency trends when dealing with foreign country ETFs.

Comment

It's looking a bit toppy here at my 5. Flipped the SPY and XLF calls. Might be time to start balancing things out with some puts, maybe NFLX.

Comment

Funny thing is, people think news matters. The only news that matters is the interest rate. Interesting that this China "news" coincides with European markets breaking out and completes the wedge almost perfectly.
Comments
Fida4u
@hungry_hippo nicely done. Any downside targets?
hungry_hippo
@Fida4u, strictly from a TA standpoint, the target is about $14 below where it breaks the lower trendline. The base of the wedge is not very big.

I think it all depends on the Jan Fed meeting. A wedge is not guaranteed to break downwards, it can go sideways (last May) or even break upwards (last March and April). I don't expect a big drop unless the Fed decide to raise rates in July or earlier. If anything it looks like the market is setting up for an inverted head and shoulder.

I'm expecting a final exhaustion gap and doji on Monday. We'll see. I unloaded half of my long positions today and added some NFLX puts with profits. If the market drops, NFLX will tank.
hungry_hippo
@Fida4u, I warned you it could go sideways... looks just like last May.
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