Midkniteskyz

Spy Pre-Market Thoughts | Daily Commentary

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
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Happy Wednesday!
Bulls drove the price almost to the close that we had Jun 10th. A few pennies shy of 319. Graveyard crew is putting in some higher number as well. The last time we had these numbers was June 8th, a dump followed afterwards. Will the bulls let the bears tackle them down again?

What is the market saying?

- Yesterday was a breakout of a 6 day bull flag . Today will be confirmation day if the bulls can close above 319. Luckily theres a 3 point daily trend line , top and bottom now (check chart). Above 323.2, there really aren't a lot of resistance zones. Going into no mans land may give clues to possible resistance spot though.

1) Weekly Time Frame

- This isn't a legitimate trend line (missing 3 points), but to illustrate a pattern, theres an expanding downward channel trend beginning to develop on the weekly's.

319.34 & 317.59 as weekly lower highs

304.32,304.21, & 300.5 as weekly lower lows

2) Daily Time Frame

- Bull flag breakout yesterday. Pattern started 2 july. Pending confirmation with a higher high.

3) 20SMA

-Bulls have closed above the daily 20SMA since 2 July.

4) Daily Indicator Standings

MACD: Above zero // buy
BB: Sideways above center line, nearing upper deviation
RSI: Sideways since 6 july // 55.78 -> 59.41
KO: Signal line above 0 // Slow line uptrending up to zero line
OBV: Sideways since 6 july // Lower high set yesterday


Resistance levels
(Pre-Market) 323.39
323.5
323

Support levels
(Pre-Market) 318.38
322
321.35
320.55
320

Unfilled gaps
- gap to the north side
325.85 - 332.58

- 2 gaps on the south side
296.69-295.63
291.75-286.28

3) VIX Thoughts

- VIX hasnt really done anything. Downtrended yesterday, no overnight movement. Suspicious.

If this helps you like and follow the chart all day. Ill be giving updates as they show up! Getting feedback helps a lot. Thanks for taking the time to read. All of this information is my interpretation and shouldn't be taken as trading advice. Good luck out there traders!
Comment: Bears would like to touch the gap at 319. getting under 320 on candle close could almost promise that number in the books.

whats the bulls plan?
hold 320.
321.3 ish is the number their trying to hold right now.
Comment: Bulls need to get above and hold 322.5 before theyll want to go higher.

Could have a pull back down the bullflag created yesterday. where abouts? 319ish is 50% of the flag give or take.
Comment: Staying up pushing 322.3 is an idea the bulls want to spike higher. Just would be best to wait until they can confidently close above.
Comment: hows /esmini looking?

bull flag high of 3232

dropping to 3200 wouldnt be a big deal to the flag. getting under 3180 would cause a bigger problem for the bulls though.
Comment: support and resistance lines are all scattered on the chart today due to this being an abnormal jump over night. but heres a few supports

321.6ish
321.3
320.5ish

some resistances
322.2
322.5
323
323.4
Comment: Bulls getting above 322.5 giving them some juice to hit the premarket high. 323.4ish is their target at least for the day.
Comment: bears will want to retest the breakout here 322.5
Comment: bulls held 320 @320.05 If bears get price under there, expect it to trigger limit sales and buys real quick.
Comment: bears dropping down. The premarket support is 318.5ish.
318.9ish was yesterdays close. Should be buyer at these two numbers.
but first, the bulls need to recap 320.1 to get higher.
Comment: bulls need to stay above 319.3 to set a higher low and gain some ground. 320 preferably.
Comment: Bulls getting pushback around 321.75ish a bunch

If they hover here for a little while, its expected theyll try to pop up and recap 322.1ish.
Comment: Theres the push. time for bears to retest the level and see how much bulls really want it.

upward from here is 322 & 322.5

lets see if bulls get there.

Comments

i swear we are mirroring Monday
Reply
@vvrr, Looks like the late half of monday alot. If theres a breakdown today as violent as that was, im gonna wish i held my put longer. 15m 9ema is holding down as resistance ATM. just cant trust bulls to sprout money trees out of nowhere. i can see bulls preferring to gap over night above 323 just to avoid the pushback during hours. that would hopefully repeat monday.

Doubt seeing that today though. XLF is in bull flag formation and holding up well .
Reply
vvrr Midkniteskyz
@Midkniteskyz, lot of economic data to be released over night today, gap up would be interesting, VIX play probably best way to capitalize on the volatility, i munched on some SPXS 7c if we gap down tomorrow
+1 Reply
why do I feel there is a double reversal island in store for us this week.
Reply
@vvrr, That's what its looking like. Im feeling bears want a lower weekly.
Reply
vvrr Midkniteskyz
@Midkniteskyz, put call ratio juicy too. TLT recovering... overall i still feel market wants to push all time highs / politics aside / volatility does not want to give up which is telling.
enjoy your dailys - thank you
Reply
@vvrr, PCI was spiking really low a few mins ago. Had to go contrarian on it. As long as everyday people are leaning bearish overall, theres no need to the MM to go low thats for sure. thanks for checking them out!
Reply
vvrr Midkniteskyz
@Midkniteskyz, def have to go contrarian on the PCC / March 10th ish had a PCC of 1.8!! - we are currently at June 5ht/8th/9th levels there to. (island reversal on June 11th) - let's see
Reply
@vvrr, Those numbers also hit this large weekly resistance at 323.3 ish. reminds me of trying to break through 317. just met with heavy pushback during trading hours.
checking out PCSPX and this would be a prime time day to prep for a big move soon.
Reply
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